最近剛結束了一個自以為很簡單的考試〈事實上還是要花一點時間和下一點功夫的〉，之後，開始讀了一本我大學時代所欣賞的作者所出的新書”老師的12樣見面禮”。
天下父母心，如果有能力我也願效法孟母三遷；
這一本簡的新書描述的是他們一家在美國科羅拉多州的Fort Collins生活半年的所見所聞，其中我覺得最令人欣羨的是其子在Dunn IB World School所接受到的教育。
IB World Schools，是經過International Baccalaureate所認證的學校，上網查了一下IB的資料後深深的認同其教育理念，可惜台灣只有美國學校和歐洲學校取得他16-19歲diploma programme的教學認證，如果台灣有IB的小學和幼稚園〈IB的其中一項學程--Primary Years Programme--是針對3-12歲的學生〉，我會很樂意送我的小孩去那裡接受教育的。 還有我覺得如果台灣的教改如果能有90%像IB, 我會對台灣的教育與未來更加的寬心，但現在的我只好儲備自己的能量以便有一朝能帶全家逃離這個小島。
關於老師的十二樣見面禮這一本書，我尚未看完，但我把Dunn IB World School的特殊歸因於他是一所IB World School，所以想要了解3-12歲的小朋友在IB World School所可能接受到的教育與改變可以參閱簡的這一本新書，其中的幾篇可以感受到IB的獨特性，如：一所小學、老師的十二樣見面禮、頒獎、期中成績單、小學裡的選修課、請假授課備忘單、研討會練習、織一張閱讀網….等；藉由簡的眼和其生花妙筆，我見識到了教育的美好與未來。
接下來是從IBO網站所剪貼下來的關於International Baccalaureate的相關資料。
1. What is International Baccalaureate〈IB〉？
The International Baccalaureate was founded in Geneva, Switzerland in 1968 as a non-profit educational foundation. Its original purpose was to facilitate the international mobility of students preparing for university by providing schools with a curriculum and diploma recognized by universities around the world. Since then its mission has expanded, and it now seeks to make an IB education available to students of all ages.
2. Why the IB World Schools and their students are so unique？
The IB offers a continuum of high-quality education that encourages international-mindedness and a positive attitude to learning.
To encourage international-mindedness in IB students, we believe that students must first develop an understanding of their own cultural and national identity. All IB students learn a second language and the skills to live and work with others internationally—essential for life in the 21st century.
We encourage a positive attitude to learning by encouraging students to ask challenging questions, to critically reflect, to develop research skills, and to learn how to learn. We encourage community service because we believe that there is more to learning than academic studies alone.
3. How the IB World Schools be assessed, organized, and managed？
IB World Schools cooperate in curriculum development, student assessment and the governance of the IB, making this a unique international collaboration.
The IB does not own or manage any schools. Instead, we work with schools around the world (both state and privately funded) that share our commitment to international education.
Schools that have been authorized by us to offer one or more of our programs are known as "IB World Schools".
These schools:
Shared the mission and commitment of the IB to quality international education.
Played an active and supporting role in the worldwide community of IB schools.
Shared their knowledge and experience in the development of the IB programs.
They are committed to the professional development of teachers.
Authorization to become an IB World School is an intensive process that typically takes two or more years and includes site visits by an IB team.
Schools that have been authorized undertake a regular process of evaluation.
At our heart we are motivated by a mission to create a better world through education.
4. The mission statement of IB.
The International Baccalaureate aims to develop inquiring, knowledgeable and caring young people who help to create a better and more peaceful world through intercultural understanding and respect.
To this end the organization works with schools, governments and international organizations to develop challenging programmes of international education and rigorous assessment.
These programmes encourage students across the world to become active, compassionate and lifelong learners who understand that other people, with their differences, can also be right.
5. What Jeff Beard, IB director general, said？
You may ask why demand for IB programmes continues to be so strong? In my opinion, it’s because the IB is better positioned to respond to today’s educational challenges. As people increasingly realize what it takes to compete in today’s interconnected world, the IB is increasingly viewed as offering one of the best educational systems to prepare young people for the future. IB programmes are international, develop critical thinking skills, require a second language, and emphasize cultural understanding in our principle that other people can be right as well. IB students undergo a unique experience which better positions them to tackle today’s global issues in a more creative way than has been done in the past. Our programmes are shaped around creating “a better and more peaceful world” with a core determination to develop students who can create this better world through intercultural understanding and respect.
In essence, IB programmes are “fit for purpose” for the 21st century!”
6. For more information.At glance the facts of IB at http://www.ibo.org/facts/fastfacts/index.cfm
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Something you don’t know about the tide
There’s another alternative fuel that we never see it seriously- the tidal wave.
I get to know about it from the GARP News of yesterday. It said the seawater is 832 times as dense as air, providing a six mile-per-hour ocean current with more kinetic energy than a 217 mile per hour wind.
Unlike hydropower, tidal energy doesn’t require the permanent impediment of water flow and the subsequent harm to aquatic life.
But tidal power plants can impede sea life migration and can affect local ecosystems. To work it environmentally, carefully select sites for the plants that preserve the shorelines.
Hope to see the workable future and the reasonable price for the electricity from tidal wave.
reference：www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-06-25-14934.html
I get to know about it from the GARP News of yesterday. It said the seawater is 832 times as dense as air, providing a six mile-per-hour ocean current with more kinetic energy than a 217 mile per hour wind.
Unlike hydropower, tidal energy doesn’t require the permanent impediment of water flow and the subsequent harm to aquatic life.
But tidal power plants can impede sea life migration and can affect local ecosystems. To work it environmentally, carefully select sites for the plants that preserve the shorelines.
Hope to see the workable future and the reasonable price for the electricity from tidal wave.
reference：www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-06-25-14934.html
Thursday, June 07, 2007
Talking about Peace Index
What you can’s measure, you can’t understand. So The EIU complied the first “Global Peace Index”
In accordance with the Taiwan’s Business Weekly, Most of the happiness nations came to the top of index. Those northern Europe countries were not surprised me but the America. America listed 96th, ironically, just above Iran. Maybe the index was comprised of relations with neighbors, arms dales, foreign troop deployments, crime rates, prison population, etc., and America came with huge military expense annually. So the index might have your comprehension to understand it.
If the peace is like a mantra always in your mind, the article is worth your reading.
I just try to keep the introduction simple and concise, and wish you would like what I recommended.
You may hyperlink the column to http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9266967.
In accordance with the Taiwan’s Business Weekly, Most of the happiness nations came to the top of index. Those northern Europe countries were not surprised me but the America. America listed 96th, ironically, just above Iran. Maybe the index was comprised of relations with neighbors, arms dales, foreign troop deployments, crime rates, prison population, etc., and America came with huge military expense annually. So the index might have your comprehension to understand it.
If the peace is like a mantra always in your mind, the article is worth your reading.
I just try to keep the introduction simple and concise, and wish you would like what I recommended.
You may hyperlink the column to http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9266967.
Thursday, May 10, 2007
Agflation
美林5月1日時在其內部的投資研究平台﹙Bullseye﹚寫到因為食物價格的上漲給消費者物價指數帶來壓力，所以他們成這種現象為Agflation。
根據美國農業部門的報導，食物價格在去年上漲了2.3%，預估今年會上漲3.5%，但僅今年第一季的漲幅年化後就達7.3%。
在中國和印度，消費者物價指數中食物的比重分別達33%與45%。 所以當我們在談核心物價上漲時，因為剔除了食物和能源的變動，故在食物和能源價格高漲的今日，這樣的指標是不恰當的。
食物價格上漲的原因主要有三個：
﹙1﹚ 能源價格上漲；因為大量的玉米被做成酒精以作為石油的替代能源，而當大量的農地轉而種植玉米後，其他的農作因為產量減少而導致其價格上漲；且玉米主要作為飼料使用，當飼料因短缺而價格上漲後，牛肉和雞肉等家畜類產品的價格亦會隨之上調。
﹙2﹚ 氣候變異；如澳洲的霜害造成小麥的減產，又全世界氣溫異常的升高後蔗糖、水果、柳橙….等的產量減少所帶來的價格上漲。
﹙3﹚ 發展中國家的工業化，如中國的發展導致近十年來每年大約有一個蘇格蘭般大的可耕地被重新開發。
食物的價格從1980年起就不斷的在上漲，但自2005年3月來，米、大麥、小麥、玉米、豬肉、牛肉…等的價格至少上漲了30%，但這也推升了食品類股的股價，如S&P 500的包裝食品指數去年一年就上漲了17%，且從今年3月中至今它就漲了8%。
所以Agflation對消費者是不好的，但對某些食品公司而言它可能是個好消息。
On May 1, Richard Bernstein, the Chief Investment Strategist of Merrill Lynch had coined an eye-catching term “agflation”. It is the behaviour of food prices - an inflation that none of us can avoid.
For example, in the US, food prices in the first three months of this year alone rose at an annualised rate of 7.3 per cent. Versus the rising was 2.3% in 2006.
When we talked about core inflation, the food always been excluded. But now in China and India, food accounts for 33 percents and 45 percents of their consumer price indices respectively. Food-price inflation has also been a big driver of the "frequent purchases" measure of inflation. The exclusion of food may be short-sighted.
Given the changing demand for food, especially the energy industries are turning to be the mass consumers of food products. Because the soaring price of crude oils, the corn-based ethanol became the suitable substitute for petrol. The demand is rising then the price is skyrocketing.
Another cause is changing weather patterns expanding constraints on food supply. Most researchers believe that higher temperatures and droughts caused by climate change will depress crop yields in many places in the coming decades. For example, the frosts in major wheat growing region of Australia battered harvests then driving up the prices. The previous 100 years of data recorded none.
Then there is third world industrialisation: every year for the last decade, China has lost fertile land equivalent to the area of Scotland.
Food input prices are now putting more upward pressure on producer inflation than at any time since the early 1980s. The prices of rice, wheat, corn, barley, cattle and pork are all up by more than 30% since March 2005. So the recent performance of the S&P 500 packaged foods index has risen 17% during the past 12 months and is close to a record high.
"Agflation is bad news for the consumer, already under pressure from higher energy prices," said Jose Rasco, an investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, , in a recent note. "For the food companies, however, it could be good news as many companies have been able to pass along those higher costs to the end user."
Reference：
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/marketview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9136006
2. http://askmerrill.ml.com/res_article/1,2271,19659,00.html
3. http://business.scotsman.com/agriculture.cfm?id=689162007&format=print
4. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=10df0a8b-94f5-4897-9048-aa6971f97947&k=25161
5. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18468351
根據美國農業部門的報導，食物價格在去年上漲了2.3%，預估今年會上漲3.5%，但僅今年第一季的漲幅年化後就達7.3%。
在中國和印度，消費者物價指數中食物的比重分別達33%與45%。 所以當我們在談核心物價上漲時，因為剔除了食物和能源的變動，故在食物和能源價格高漲的今日，這樣的指標是不恰當的。
食物價格上漲的原因主要有三個：
﹙1﹚ 能源價格上漲；因為大量的玉米被做成酒精以作為石油的替代能源，而當大量的農地轉而種植玉米後，其他的農作因為產量減少而導致其價格上漲；且玉米主要作為飼料使用，當飼料因短缺而價格上漲後，牛肉和雞肉等家畜類產品的價格亦會隨之上調。
﹙2﹚ 氣候變異；如澳洲的霜害造成小麥的減產，又全世界氣溫異常的升高後蔗糖、水果、柳橙….等的產量減少所帶來的價格上漲。
﹙3﹚ 發展中國家的工業化，如中國的發展導致近十年來每年大約有一個蘇格蘭般大的可耕地被重新開發。
食物的價格從1980年起就不斷的在上漲，但自2005年3月來，米、大麥、小麥、玉米、豬肉、牛肉…等的價格至少上漲了30%，但這也推升了食品類股的股價，如S&P 500的包裝食品指數去年一年就上漲了17%，且從今年3月中至今它就漲了8%。
所以Agflation對消費者是不好的，但對某些食品公司而言它可能是個好消息。
On May 1, Richard Bernstein, the Chief Investment Strategist of Merrill Lynch had coined an eye-catching term “agflation”. It is the behaviour of food prices - an inflation that none of us can avoid.
For example, in the US, food prices in the first three months of this year alone rose at an annualised rate of 7.3 per cent. Versus the rising was 2.3% in 2006.
When we talked about core inflation, the food always been excluded. But now in China and India, food accounts for 33 percents and 45 percents of their consumer price indices respectively. Food-price inflation has also been a big driver of the "frequent purchases" measure of inflation. The exclusion of food may be short-sighted.
Given the changing demand for food, especially the energy industries are turning to be the mass consumers of food products. Because the soaring price of crude oils, the corn-based ethanol became the suitable substitute for petrol. The demand is rising then the price is skyrocketing.
Another cause is changing weather patterns expanding constraints on food supply. Most researchers believe that higher temperatures and droughts caused by climate change will depress crop yields in many places in the coming decades. For example, the frosts in major wheat growing region of Australia battered harvests then driving up the prices. The previous 100 years of data recorded none.
Then there is third world industrialisation: every year for the last decade, China has lost fertile land equivalent to the area of Scotland.
Food input prices are now putting more upward pressure on producer inflation than at any time since the early 1980s. The prices of rice, wheat, corn, barley, cattle and pork are all up by more than 30% since March 2005. So the recent performance of the S&P 500 packaged foods index has risen 17% during the past 12 months and is close to a record high.
"Agflation is bad news for the consumer, already under pressure from higher energy prices," said Jose Rasco, an investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, , in a recent note. "For the food companies, however, it could be good news as many companies have been able to pass along those higher costs to the end user."
Reference：
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/marketview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9136006
2. http://askmerrill.ml.com/res_article/1,2271,19659,00.html
3. http://business.scotsman.com/agriculture.cfm?id=689162007&format=print
4. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=10df0a8b-94f5-4897-9048-aa6971f97947&k=25161
5. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18468351
Wednesday, April 25, 2007
20070423 GARP News Digest
★根據FEI〈Financial Executives International〉在2006年對274家上市公司所作 的調查顯示，為了遵循沙賓法案404條款每一家公司在2005年的平均花費為380萬美元。因為遵循沙賓法案404條款的成本太高所以很多小公司選擇私有化或下市後在Pink Sheets上提供報價。
華頓商學院的教授Christian Leuz表示在1998年到2004年家有484家公司下市後轉到Pink Sheets，其中有372家公司是在2002到2004年下市。Leuz教授表示遵循404條款的成本從50萬美元到上百萬美元，對小公司而言成本遠高於效益。
於是SEC的Advisory Committee在2006年4月提出建議針對微型〈股票市值1.28億美元以下〉和小型的公司〈股票市值在1.28億美元和7.87億美元之間〉在遵循沙賓法案404條款上作分級，雖然微型和小型公司的市值分別只佔美國股市勢值的1％，但美國的上市公司有52.6％是微型公司、有25.9％是小型公司。
Reference：
http://www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-04-23-14583.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Sheets
★根據今年三月的數據所跑出來的LEI 〈Leading Economic Indicators〉和KRWI〈Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator〉顯示出了景氣衰退的訊號。
Reference：http://www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-04-23-14584.html
華頓商學院的教授Christian Leuz表示在1998年到2004年家有484家公司下市後轉到Pink Sheets，其中有372家公司是在2002到2004年下市。Leuz教授表示遵循404條款的成本從50萬美元到上百萬美元，對小公司而言成本遠高於效益。
於是SEC的Advisory Committee在2006年4月提出建議針對微型〈股票市值1.28億美元以下〉和小型的公司〈股票市值在1.28億美元和7.87億美元之間〉在遵循沙賓法案404條款上作分級，雖然微型和小型公司的市值分別只佔美國股市勢值的1％，但美國的上市公司有52.6％是微型公司、有25.9％是小型公司。
Reference：
http://www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-04-23-14583.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Sheets
★根據今年三月的數據所跑出來的LEI 〈Leading Economic Indicators〉和KRWI〈Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator〉顯示出了景氣衰退的訊號。
Reference：http://www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-04-23-14584.html
Monday, April 23, 2007
The pursuit of wealthiest
Two month ago, our CEO gives all his employees two movie tickets for us to see “ The Pursuit of Happyness”.
Why this film would be recommended by my boss? Maybe it’s the movie that casts business in a good light, talks about the merits of capitalism, tells a story of a man struggling against homelessness and the importance of fatherhood, suggests happiness not only a brief illusion but something long-lasting, and etc.
The scene and the lines echoed after I saw the preview, it said” If you have a dream. Go and get it.”
I have a dream; I wish it could be realized some day. While I had never suffer the hardship like Chris Gardner, but I just want to say that he did chose the right path to become rich. To be a trader is not an easy way to go, but worth try.
In the year 2005, James Simons grabbed the biggest profits as the top trader. But the globe is getting more turbulent nowadays. Last year Brian Hunter tumbled with Amaranth in the wrong direction of natural gas prices, but John Arnold outnumbered the rest of traders in the opposite direction of Arnold. The estimated income of Arnold comes to 1.5 to 2 billion; he earned roughly 300 times the bonus of Goldman CEO.
To the pursuits, it’s a never ending game to become the wealthiest, besides you could become the happiest if you got the faith in yourself. The faith lies in the knowledge pursuing would bear the fruits of wealth growing.
Reference：
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/businessview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8991240
2. http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/18/why-top-traders-outearn-investment-bank-ceos-2-1/
3. http://www.traderdaily.com/news/item/5585.html
4. http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/12/22/hedge-fund-bonuses-biz-cx_lm_1222hedge.html
5. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/54/biz_06rich400_James-H-Simons_5GZ7.html
當錢錢來敲門
一個多月前我們老闆給了公司的員工每個人兩張的電影票，因為他要我們每個人都去看”當幸福來敲門”。
當然每個人在電影過後都有了不同的啟示。男主角很聰明沒錯，雖然魔術方塊那一段是應威爾史密斯的要求才加進去的，但Chris Gardner選擇不當醫生而想從事證券交易員致富證實是正確的。
因為真正的打工皇帝就是這群交易員們，在2005年前百大交易員平均的年薪是3.63億美元；2006年高盛證券CEO的年薪為5340萬美元，但這樣的薪水只是跨入百大交易員的門檻而已。去年最會賺錢的交易員是John Arnold，他去年的收入預估在15至20億美元，但2005年的冠軍James Simons在去年的收入也是不惶多讓。
當然想要成為其中的一員除了要有很強的抗壓性外、不然就是有異於常人市場敏銳度、還有就是數學不能太差--不然怎麼唬人。John Arnold今年33歲，看來有生之年我是趕不上他了；James Simons今年68歲，可是他是個數學博士，看樣子要花很大的工夫才有辦法在跟他年紀一樣大的時候還能日進斗金。
Why this film would be recommended by my boss? Maybe it’s the movie that casts business in a good light, talks about the merits of capitalism, tells a story of a man struggling against homelessness and the importance of fatherhood, suggests happiness not only a brief illusion but something long-lasting, and etc.
The scene and the lines echoed after I saw the preview, it said” If you have a dream. Go and get it.”
I have a dream; I wish it could be realized some day. While I had never suffer the hardship like Chris Gardner, but I just want to say that he did chose the right path to become rich. To be a trader is not an easy way to go, but worth try.
In the year 2005, James Simons grabbed the biggest profits as the top trader. But the globe is getting more turbulent nowadays. Last year Brian Hunter tumbled with Amaranth in the wrong direction of natural gas prices, but John Arnold outnumbered the rest of traders in the opposite direction of Arnold. The estimated income of Arnold comes to 1.5 to 2 billion; he earned roughly 300 times the bonus of Goldman CEO.
To the pursuits, it’s a never ending game to become the wealthiest, besides you could become the happiest if you got the faith in yourself. The faith lies in the knowledge pursuing would bear the fruits of wealth growing.
Reference：
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/businessview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8991240
2. http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/18/why-top-traders-outearn-investment-bank-ceos-2-1/
3. http://www.traderdaily.com/news/item/5585.html
4. http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/12/22/hedge-fund-bonuses-biz-cx_lm_1222hedge.html
5. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/54/biz_06rich400_James-H-Simons_5GZ7.html
當錢錢來敲門
一個多月前我們老闆給了公司的員工每個人兩張的電影票，因為他要我們每個人都去看”當幸福來敲門”。
當然每個人在電影過後都有了不同的啟示。男主角很聰明沒錯，雖然魔術方塊那一段是應威爾史密斯的要求才加進去的，但Chris Gardner選擇不當醫生而想從事證券交易員致富證實是正確的。
因為真正的打工皇帝就是這群交易員們，在2005年前百大交易員平均的年薪是3.63億美元；2006年高盛證券CEO的年薪為5340萬美元，但這樣的薪水只是跨入百大交易員的門檻而已。去年最會賺錢的交易員是John Arnold，他去年的收入預估在15至20億美元，但2005年的冠軍James Simons在去年的收入也是不惶多讓。
當然想要成為其中的一員除了要有很強的抗壓性外、不然就是有異於常人市場敏銳度、還有就是數學不能太差--不然怎麼唬人。John Arnold今年33歲，看來有生之年我是趕不上他了；James Simons今年68歲，可是他是個數學博士，看樣子要花很大的工夫才有辦法在跟他年紀一樣大的時候還能日進斗金。
Monday, April 16, 2007
寫作力
從小到大，我並不是特別喜歡作文，我的作文分數當然也不會是佳作優等之流，因為一切的一切都只是為了交差了事；但
升上了大學之後，我的眼界開了，除了課業之外我加入了好幾個社團、去咖啡店打工、品酒、煮咖啡、藝術史、建築、美食….等，我的生活一下子擁擠了起來，於是慢慢的我把我的生活體驗 —如美麗的晚霞、雲彩背後的神之光芒、日本料理店的幸福味道….等— 透過e-mail的繕寫將我的心情在其時其地完整的保存下來。
當兵的兩年更是我課外閱讀的黃金時期，除了背英漢字典外我看了上百本的書、寫了上百封信、記錄了數百頁的的心情，我的文字常常充滿了閱讀的感動，當然我也靠著我的書信再退伍後的一個月內和我的老婆從好朋友變成了男女朋友。
進入社會後，我忙著約會、急切地充實自己金融的專業、不斷地考取自以為有用的證照；於是看雜書的時間少了，書寫因覺得耗時所以就被擺在了一邊，鎮日拿著最新的期刊與報紙不斷擷取產業知識與金融新知，但少了文字的梳理，很多的東西都要反覆的閱讀之後才得以深入肌理。
1012期的商業周刊標題是”越寫越聰明”，雖然我不算笨，但是難得聰明，希望重拾往日書寫的感動，讓我那積了太多東西的腦子能夠產生梅迪奇效應。
升上了大學之後，我的眼界開了，除了課業之外我加入了好幾個社團、去咖啡店打工、品酒、煮咖啡、藝術史、建築、美食….等，我的生活一下子擁擠了起來，於是慢慢的我把我的生活體驗 —如美麗的晚霞、雲彩背後的神之光芒、日本料理店的幸福味道….等— 透過e-mail的繕寫將我的心情在其時其地完整的保存下來。
當兵的兩年更是我課外閱讀的黃金時期，除了背英漢字典外我看了上百本的書、寫了上百封信、記錄了數百頁的的心情，我的文字常常充滿了閱讀的感動，當然我也靠著我的書信再退伍後的一個月內和我的老婆從好朋友變成了男女朋友。
進入社會後，我忙著約會、急切地充實自己金融的專業、不斷地考取自以為有用的證照；於是看雜書的時間少了，書寫因覺得耗時所以就被擺在了一邊，鎮日拿著最新的期刊與報紙不斷擷取產業知識與金融新知，但少了文字的梳理，很多的東西都要反覆的閱讀之後才得以深入肌理。
1012期的商業周刊標題是”越寫越聰明”，雖然我不算笨，但是難得聰明，希望重拾往日書寫的感動，讓我那積了太多東西的腦子能夠產生梅迪奇效應。
Friday, March 30, 2007
讀本與資產的未來
資訊焦慮的人總是覺得不斷的被資訊追著跑，好不容易看完了上一期的周刊、今天的報紙、檔案夾的報告，等，但一下子就又被迎面而來的資訊所淹沒。
上個禮拜的經濟學人有幾篇還不錯的文章，其中一篇是關於未來的讀本，我們這種終日與閱讀為重的人，生活型態亦可能隨著讀本的樣貌而有所改變。
The future of books
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8881446
另外一篇是關於美國的次級房貸，有在做投資的人可以看看一看，以免一不小心我們的資本利得就被地球另一邊的這隻大蝴蝶所影響縮水了。在這個無所不連且更加纏繞在一起的世界，蝴蝶效應也亦發明顯。
America’s housing market
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8885853
上個禮拜的經濟學人有幾篇還不錯的文章，其中一篇是關於未來的讀本，我們這種終日與閱讀為重的人，生活型態亦可能隨著讀本的樣貌而有所改變。
The future of books
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8881446
另外一篇是關於美國的次級房貸，有在做投資的人可以看看一看，以免一不小心我們的資本利得就被地球另一邊的這隻大蝴蝶所影響縮水了。在這個無所不連且更加纏繞在一起的世界，蝴蝶效應也亦發明顯。
America’s housing market
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8885853
Friday, March 23, 2007
Financial Shenanigan
Last week, the Buttonwood column talked about confidence, the confidence that we laid on the credibility of financial system.
But to our omittance, the ironic Ponzificating slid in and spread across the whole globe. Ponzi Scheme is a financial shenanigan, paying the higher return to the foremost from the money funnel by the hindmost, it depends on confidence or relies on mew backers to keep them going.
The hedge funds, private equities, pension funds, etc., all of them are chasing higher returns, so the sub-mortgage backed securities arose to sustain their dreams via rising house prices. But one day the real estate did not buoyant any more, so the securities sustained by the sub-mortgage deteriorated then the institution investors ran amok. That’s the Ponzi-like game.
More examples of Ponzi-like structures, 〈1〉pay-as-you-go pension systems depend on there being enough workers to fund promises made to retired employees, 〈2〉The health of the commercial banking system depends on the assumption that most depositors will keep their money in the bank, when there’s a bank run the result is usually an economic catastrophe.
Hyman Minsky, an American economist, distinguished three kinds of borrowers, Hedged debtors, Speculative borrowers, and Ponzi borrowers. Hedged borrowers and Speculative borrowers at least could pay their interest. But when the assets not appreciate any more, the Ponzi borrowers would go bankrupt, not to mention interest.
So beware the Minsky moment may come.
Reference︰http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8864415
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=504
Ponzi Scheme：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme
Minsky moment：
http://www.bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=134435
But to our omittance, the ironic Ponzificating slid in and spread across the whole globe. Ponzi Scheme is a financial shenanigan, paying the higher return to the foremost from the money funnel by the hindmost, it depends on confidence or relies on mew backers to keep them going.
The hedge funds, private equities, pension funds, etc., all of them are chasing higher returns, so the sub-mortgage backed securities arose to sustain their dreams via rising house prices. But one day the real estate did not buoyant any more, so the securities sustained by the sub-mortgage deteriorated then the institution investors ran amok. That’s the Ponzi-like game.
More examples of Ponzi-like structures, 〈1〉pay-as-you-go pension systems depend on there being enough workers to fund promises made to retired employees, 〈2〉The health of the commercial banking system depends on the assumption that most depositors will keep their money in the bank, when there’s a bank run the result is usually an economic catastrophe.
Hyman Minsky, an American economist, distinguished three kinds of borrowers, Hedged debtors, Speculative borrowers, and Ponzi borrowers. Hedged borrowers and Speculative borrowers at least could pay their interest. But when the assets not appreciate any more, the Ponzi borrowers would go bankrupt, not to mention interest.
So beware the Minsky moment may come.
Reference︰http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8864415
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=504
Ponzi Scheme：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme
Minsky moment：
http://www.bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=134435
Friday, March 16, 2007
手機經濟學
在經濟學人2月15號的期刊中有提到手機付費的趨勢，其中有顧問公司預估手機付費機制將從2003年的32億美元成長到2008年的370億美元。
2月12日的時候有19家電話業者宣佈用手機做境外匯款的時代將來到，即使沒有銀行帳戶也做得到，而關於移民者和境外工作者對母國的匯款是個一年2500億美元的市場。
手機付費的機制之所以吸引人是因為很多人甚至是小孩都有手機，所以較容易推廣並普及。
手機付費應用的技術為NFC〈Near Field Communication〉，目前NFC主要的應用如台北捷運悠遊卡、香港八達通卡、英國Oyster、日本Edy….等，但上述四種系統除了日本的Edy有手機付款的機制外其餘都僅止於是名片式卡片；NFC的手機付款機制和NFC卡片付款機制的差別在於手機付款機制有螢幕可以顯示資訊並作雙向的溝通、可以線上儲值、可以透過手機做匯款、遺失的時候可以遠端報失並鎖住預存的額度….等。
Edy 目前是日本最大的非接觸式付款平台，共有4.3萬家商店可接受用Edy付款，目前有2300萬個使用者，其中包含450萬個使用者是用手機付款機制；現在每個月約有1500萬筆交易是透過Edy完成。日本第二大是Suica非接觸式付款平台，目前有1800萬個帳戶。
可是各非接觸式付款平台其實並不相容，但日本在3月18日的時候會推出PASMO平台，它整合26家鐵路和75家巴士公司。
日本的Edy、Suica、PASMO的三種非接觸式付款平台同時都可有名片式卡片和手機付款方案。
美國人和日本人不同的是，美國人較習慣用塑膠貨幣付款，目前有超過15億張信用卡在美國人的口袋裡。而預付卡的市場從VISA、MasterCard、Discover等發行的預付卡到星巴克、GAP等發行的禮物卡約有1800億美元的市場。但相較於整個消費市場非接觸式付款平台的市佔率仍小，目前在美國有600萬個商店可接受信用卡消費，但僅有100萬個商店可用非接觸式卡片付款。
銀行當然也想參與這個新的付款平台以便收取更多的手續費，但新科技的突破卻直接繞過了銀行這個中介的機構，如透過非接觸付款機制買票、買報紙、買咖啡等的帳單並不會顯示在我們的信用卡月結單，而是顯示在我們的手機帳單裡。
可是一旦少了銀行的介入，電信公司並不樂見消費者用手機付款平台去做大額的消費，因為電信公司沒有銀行的金融風險控管機制，所以它並沒有能力去承擔信用風險，甚至是去處理呆帳與追討欠款。所以如此觀來銀行還有它在個產業的施力點。
新技術的進展，造成了產業邊界的模糊，跨業、結盟、整併等，Smartcard產業也將因手機和NFC的結合而上演新的戲碼。
Original：
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8697424
M-PESA：
http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_money/2006/02/mobile_payments.html
http://www.vodafone.com/article/0,3029,CATEGORY_ID%253D30403%2526LANGUAGE_ID%253D0%2526CONTENT_ID%253D278612,00.html
Chip and PIN payment：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_and_PIN
NFC：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_Field_Communication
Report “Mobile Payments and Keitai Credit”：
http://eurotechnology.com/store/mobilepayment/
bitWallet：
http://china5.nikkeibp.co.jp/china/news/news/200506/mobi200506080104.html
http://www.japancorp.net/company_show.asp?compid=3474
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edy
Suica：
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suica
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suica
PASMO：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PASMO
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2359_002.html
Felica：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felica
http://203.66.161.5/document/mic_digi/Topology/report_topology/network/2004/040602FeliCa.pdf
Smart card：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartcard
2月12日的時候有19家電話業者宣佈用手機做境外匯款的時代將來到，即使沒有銀行帳戶也做得到，而關於移民者和境外工作者對母國的匯款是個一年2500億美元的市場。
手機付費的機制之所以吸引人是因為很多人甚至是小孩都有手機，所以較容易推廣並普及。
手機付費應用的技術為NFC〈Near Field Communication〉，目前NFC主要的應用如台北捷運悠遊卡、香港八達通卡、英國Oyster、日本Edy….等，但上述四種系統除了日本的Edy有手機付款的機制外其餘都僅止於是名片式卡片；NFC的手機付款機制和NFC卡片付款機制的差別在於手機付款機制有螢幕可以顯示資訊並作雙向的溝通、可以線上儲值、可以透過手機做匯款、遺失的時候可以遠端報失並鎖住預存的額度….等。
Edy 目前是日本最大的非接觸式付款平台，共有4.3萬家商店可接受用Edy付款，目前有2300萬個使用者，其中包含450萬個使用者是用手機付款機制；現在每個月約有1500萬筆交易是透過Edy完成。日本第二大是Suica非接觸式付款平台，目前有1800萬個帳戶。
可是各非接觸式付款平台其實並不相容，但日本在3月18日的時候會推出PASMO平台，它整合26家鐵路和75家巴士公司。
日本的Edy、Suica、PASMO的三種非接觸式付款平台同時都可有名片式卡片和手機付款方案。
美國人和日本人不同的是，美國人較習慣用塑膠貨幣付款，目前有超過15億張信用卡在美國人的口袋裡。而預付卡的市場從VISA、MasterCard、Discover等發行的預付卡到星巴克、GAP等發行的禮物卡約有1800億美元的市場。但相較於整個消費市場非接觸式付款平台的市佔率仍小，目前在美國有600萬個商店可接受信用卡消費，但僅有100萬個商店可用非接觸式卡片付款。
銀行當然也想參與這個新的付款平台以便收取更多的手續費，但新科技的突破卻直接繞過了銀行這個中介的機構，如透過非接觸付款機制買票、買報紙、買咖啡等的帳單並不會顯示在我們的信用卡月結單，而是顯示在我們的手機帳單裡。
可是一旦少了銀行的介入，電信公司並不樂見消費者用手機付款平台去做大額的消費，因為電信公司沒有銀行的金融風險控管機制，所以它並沒有能力去承擔信用風險，甚至是去處理呆帳與追討欠款。所以如此觀來銀行還有它在個產業的施力點。
新技術的進展，造成了產業邊界的模糊，跨業、結盟、整併等，Smartcard產業也將因手機和NFC的結合而上演新的戲碼。
Original：
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8697424
M-PESA：
http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_money/2006/02/mobile_payments.html
http://www.vodafone.com/article/0,3029,CATEGORY_ID%253D30403%2526LANGUAGE_ID%253D0%2526CONTENT_ID%253D278612,00.html
Chip and PIN payment：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_and_PIN
NFC：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_Field_Communication
Report “Mobile Payments and Keitai Credit”：
http://eurotechnology.com/store/mobilepayment/
bitWallet：
http://china5.nikkeibp.co.jp/china/news/news/200506/mobi200506080104.html
http://www.japancorp.net/company_show.asp?compid=3474
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edy
Suica：
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suica
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suica
PASMO：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PASMO
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2359_002.html
Felica：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felica
http://203.66.161.5/document/mic_digi/Topology/report_topology/network/2004/040602FeliCa.pdf
Smart card：
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartcard
Thursday, March 08, 2007
龍應台的自首報告：路走得寬闊，人顯得從容
常常接到同事和朋友轉寄來的信件, 但, 每一個人微小的善意在資訊流通的社會就慢慢的形成了一種負擔;
我有三個e-mail address, 每一個信箱都有上百封未讀的信, 而且大部分都是類似這一封一般的 forward mail, 所以,
我也常常擔心我對朋友的微小善意也會造成別人的負擔;
但找個有空的時間看一看這些文章卻常常會有意外的收穫, 因為這些文章之所以會被流傳其實是有它的價值;
它可能扭轉了我們的看法, 感動了某人, 提醒你一個不曾注意到的現象....等.
我不常轉寄信件, 但對於一個我所敬重的作家當他也在不經意的狀況下和一個對台灣未來有決定性的人物可能身陷同樣的處境時, 他的自首報告至少透漏了人格的細微處與政治的陷阱;
哀台灣, 愛台灣, 哀...........
看看唄!
http://news.yam.com/chinatimes/politics/200702/20070205909046.html or
http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,110502%20112007020500023,00.html or
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/januaryfirst&article_id=8294510
我有三個e-mail address, 每一個信箱都有上百封未讀的信, 而且大部分都是類似這一封一般的 forward mail, 所以,
我也常常擔心我對朋友的微小善意也會造成別人的負擔;
但找個有空的時間看一看這些文章卻常常會有意外的收穫, 因為這些文章之所以會被流傳其實是有它的價值;
它可能扭轉了我們的看法, 感動了某人, 提醒你一個不曾注意到的現象....等.
我不常轉寄信件, 但對於一個我所敬重的作家當他也在不經意的狀況下和一個對台灣未來有決定性的人物可能身陷同樣的處境時, 他的自首報告至少透漏了人格的細微處與政治的陷阱;
哀台灣, 愛台灣, 哀...........
看看唄!
http://news.yam.com/chinatimes/politics/200702/20070205909046.html or
http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,110502%20112007020500023,00.html or
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/januaryfirst&article_id=8294510
Tuesday, January 30, 2007
The Frenzy of M&A Spree
M&A came to $3.79 trillion in 2006, 38% higher than in 2005, according to the data from Thomson Financial. Europe registered 39% more deals than in 2005 with amounts of $1.43 trillion. U.S. grew 36% higher than in 2005 and came in at $1.56 trillion. Private equity firms snapped 20% of global M&A activities last year, marked a golden era for them. But there are some intriguing things left for us to find out.
Private equity firms with $660 billion in corporate buyouts last year and a war chest of $750 billion will to deploy, investors are on a roll, but concerns about the sector’s ability to deliver sizeable return are also welling up. There is too much money chasing for too few good deals.
Talking about exit strategies, secondary-IPO, a sale to the strategic buys in the same industry, or selling to other private equity firms.
Some economists believe that secondary IPOs are undertaken when the owners believe that the potential overvaluation by the markets far exceeds the cost of public quotation, otherwise they would consider another route.
Even IPO or a sale to strategic buyers in the same industry, are now taking much longer than they once did. In 1999, it took less than two years for investors to cash out of an investment through an IPO, but in 2006 it took more than five years, according to Raphael Amit, Wharton professor of entrepreneurship and management.
When selling to other private equity firms, we must concern about the risk that private equity firms themselves are engaged in a sort of ponzi scheme in which buyout firms sell companies to one another at increasingly high prices that ultimately will crash. It caused me worried.
Then we backed to the craze of M&A. Before HCA was buyout by $33 billion of KKR in July 2006, the RJR Nabisco case was topped at the list at the cost of $31.4 billion since 1988. However, in January 2007, Blackstone launched a bid for a set of real estate assets〈Equity Office Properties Trust〉, valued at $38.3 billion. We are looking forward to seeing another break record in the very near future.
“ Everything is very peachy now. Last year was the best on record by size, and 2007 in all likelihood will be even better in terms of activity. Whether it will be a good year for investors is an open question.", Wharton finance professor Pavel Savor echoed.
References：
1. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1647&CFID=3908579&CFTOKEN=62228347
2. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1639
3. http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-01-25-14146.html
4. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706089.shtml
5. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706088.shtml
6. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706086.shtml
Private equity firms with $660 billion in corporate buyouts last year and a war chest of $750 billion will to deploy, investors are on a roll, but concerns about the sector’s ability to deliver sizeable return are also welling up. There is too much money chasing for too few good deals.
Talking about exit strategies, secondary-IPO, a sale to the strategic buys in the same industry, or selling to other private equity firms.
Some economists believe that secondary IPOs are undertaken when the owners believe that the potential overvaluation by the markets far exceeds the cost of public quotation, otherwise they would consider another route.
Even IPO or a sale to strategic buyers in the same industry, are now taking much longer than they once did. In 1999, it took less than two years for investors to cash out of an investment through an IPO, but in 2006 it took more than five years, according to Raphael Amit, Wharton professor of entrepreneurship and management.
When selling to other private equity firms, we must concern about the risk that private equity firms themselves are engaged in a sort of ponzi scheme in which buyout firms sell companies to one another at increasingly high prices that ultimately will crash. It caused me worried.
Then we backed to the craze of M&A. Before HCA was buyout by $33 billion of KKR in July 2006, the RJR Nabisco case was topped at the list at the cost of $31.4 billion since 1988. However, in January 2007, Blackstone launched a bid for a set of real estate assets〈Equity Office Properties Trust〉, valued at $38.3 billion. We are looking forward to seeing another break record in the very near future.
“ Everything is very peachy now. Last year was the best on record by size, and 2007 in all likelihood will be even better in terms of activity. Whether it will be a good year for investors is an open question.", Wharton finance professor Pavel Savor echoed.
References：
1. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1647&CFID=3908579&CFTOKEN=62228347
2. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1639
3. http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-01-25-14146.html
4. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706089.shtml
5. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706088.shtml
6. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706086.shtml
Sunday, December 31, 2006
手製的幸福
太過速成的人生、節奏明快的生活、太過無情的世界，轉瞬即逝、不再有情；我們似乎都忘記了慢、回憶、朋友、與問候。
“人生ㄧ瞬”的威力發酵著，ㄧ本詹宏志的書、一個想念的季節、一篇褚士瑩的文章，呼應著從前的自己來到眼前和現在對照著；
原來壓力是如此的兩面軔，讓你拋去從前的慢慢與優閒，ㄧ股腦的跳進了與時俱進的洪流；但retrospection似乎也成了一種壓力，讓你不斷地對自己過去的十年反動著；壓力無所不再，逼自己慢下來、逼自己和朋友聯絡、逼自己要重拾書寫的樂趣…..壓力。
但壓力也就在ㄧ字一句間從身體進入了文章時....緩解。
太多了思念總在此時，或許最需要ㄧ張親手書寫的卡片、ㄧ聲問候、ㄧ則短訊才可以稍解每年襲來的思念狂潮。
新年快樂，我的朋友。
“人生ㄧ瞬”的威力發酵著，ㄧ本詹宏志的書、一個想念的季節、一篇褚士瑩的文章，呼應著從前的自己來到眼前和現在對照著；
原來壓力是如此的兩面軔，讓你拋去從前的慢慢與優閒，ㄧ股腦的跳進了與時俱進的洪流；但retrospection似乎也成了一種壓力，讓你不斷地對自己過去的十年反動著；壓力無所不再，逼自己慢下來、逼自己和朋友聯絡、逼自己要重拾書寫的樂趣…..壓力。
但壓力也就在ㄧ字一句間從身體進入了文章時....緩解。
太多了思念總在此時，或許最需要ㄧ張親手書寫的卡片、ㄧ聲問候、ㄧ則短訊才可以稍解每年襲來的思念狂潮。
新年快樂，我的朋友。
Wednesday, December 27, 2006
敗犬？
日本真是個奇特的國家，把年過30而未婚的女人稱之為敗犬，初聽到這個名詞的時候覺得它充滿了貶抑的意味，但”敗犬的遠吠”的作者--酒井順子—似乎已經對這樣的稱謂麻木並做出反擊。
2004的日本暢銷書，對現代的日本不婚族做了描述其實也正是台灣正在經歷的，敗犬是過去的人對不婚女性的貶抑，和單身寄生蟲一詞一樣是對生育率下降且對遠離傳統的這一群人而做出的一種激將的手法，但在現代人樂於做自己、只要我喜歡有什麼不可以的氛圍下，敗犬、單身寄身蟲、御宅族…等的名詞漸漸變成只是一股微弱的雜音，耳機戴上則隨時可以?棄眾人的紛擾而進入屬於自己的領域。
敗犬的遠吠，這應該是一本有趣的書，被稱之為敗犬的不再年輕未婚女子，或許可以藉此書找到自己的出身，藉由書中的描述去辨識出同類、去嘲笑社會過時的價值觀….等。
找到一個相關的網站連結?http://hercafe.yam.com/blog/be_single?，另外，商業週刊995期也有相關的書摘。
參考看看吧！
2004的日本暢銷書，對現代的日本不婚族做了描述其實也正是台灣正在經歷的，敗犬是過去的人對不婚女性的貶抑，和單身寄生蟲一詞一樣是對生育率下降且對遠離傳統的這一群人而做出的一種激將的手法，但在現代人樂於做自己、只要我喜歡有什麼不可以的氛圍下，敗犬、單身寄身蟲、御宅族…等的名詞漸漸變成只是一股微弱的雜音，耳機戴上則隨時可以?棄眾人的紛擾而進入屬於自己的領域。
敗犬的遠吠，這應該是一本有趣的書，被稱之為敗犬的不再年輕未婚女子，或許可以藉此書找到自己的出身，藉由書中的描述去辨識出同類、去嘲笑社會過時的價值觀….等。
找到一個相關的網站連結?http://hercafe.yam.com/blog/be_single?，另外，商業週刊995期也有相關的書摘。
參考看看吧！
Thursday, December 21, 2006
Beware the overpriced debt
Private Equity uses LBO to leave most of the debt to banks. It needs to be wary of the banking industries. When there’s not any boom sustained corporate sales, then the earning of corporate dwindled, finally the binge would come to an end.
Hope banks with most of the LBO debts without structured could survive.
But thanks to the spree of credit derivatives recently. The risk of the defaults would bear by investors evenly not only banks. The question is who’s the investor. So look into the portfolio of your mutual fund just in case you are the scapegoats.
In the harbor, one rookie of investment banking asked his chief where are the yachts of the clients. It’s a joke but cruel to show the reality there’s no boat left for us. The LBO binge stumps up fees to the private equities for their orgy. And left the bourgeois like us sank.
See what the Buttonwood said this week. 〈http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8459490〉
Hope banks with most of the LBO debts without structured could survive.
But thanks to the spree of credit derivatives recently. The risk of the defaults would bear by investors evenly not only banks. The question is who’s the investor. So look into the portfolio of your mutual fund just in case you are the scapegoats.
In the harbor, one rookie of investment banking asked his chief where are the yachts of the clients. It’s a joke but cruel to show the reality there’s no boat left for us. The LBO binge stumps up fees to the private equities for their orgy. And left the bourgeois like us sank.
See what the Buttonwood said this week. 〈http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8459490〉
Thursday, November 16, 2006
CPDO
It was Buttonwood's article mentioned a new credit derivative last week; it called CPDO, Constant Proportion Debt Obligations. I just wondering what on earth the synthetic credit instrument it is. Then decide to find out the answer.
Apparently it's a hot stuff. You could see those references below. It was all talked about CPDO after August 2006.
Its first debut was at August 2006 launched by Abn Amro named SURF. SURF is a fixed-income bond with triple-A rating from major bond rating organizations. Investors could earn more coupons than other AAA bonds.
It's worth a look.
You may try the references 1 and 2 to read the outline of this new instrument.
If you really have interest in it then you could see references 3 and 4 to feel the joy of Abn Amro as the inventor of CPDO and the covering letter of SURF.
After that you could go to reference 5 to know what the havoc it caused to credit derivative market recently.
To savor it in an easier way I recommend you the references 6 and 7, you could find how plainly they explain CPDO to you.
At last, there are several URLs remained and left for you to saturate yourself with CPDO raves.
References:
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/techview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8150178
2. http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/157230
3. http://www.abnamro.com.au/content/media/articles/308.asp
4. http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/393/BLP10636.pdf
5. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2006/11/01/555/daily-report-credit-default-swaps-6/
6. http://www.fitchratings.com.au/show_featart.asp?rel_id=410
7. http://interfluidity.powerblogs.com/posts/1163375565.shtml
http://www.riskchat.com/_articles/00000008.htm
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=4&threadid=41739
http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20Post.aspx?PostIDKey=85967
http://www.aleablog.com/2006/08/30/70/
Apparently it's a hot stuff. You could see those references below. It was all talked about CPDO after August 2006.
Its first debut was at August 2006 launched by Abn Amro named SURF. SURF is a fixed-income bond with triple-A rating from major bond rating organizations. Investors could earn more coupons than other AAA bonds.
It's worth a look.
You may try the references 1 and 2 to read the outline of this new instrument.
If you really have interest in it then you could see references 3 and 4 to feel the joy of Abn Amro as the inventor of CPDO and the covering letter of SURF.
After that you could go to reference 5 to know what the havoc it caused to credit derivative market recently.
To savor it in an easier way I recommend you the references 6 and 7, you could find how plainly they explain CPDO to you.
At last, there are several URLs remained and left for you to saturate yourself with CPDO raves.
References:
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/techview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8150178
2. http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/157230
3. http://www.abnamro.com.au/content/media/articles/308.asp
4. http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/393/BLP10636.pdf
5. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2006/11/01/555/daily-report-credit-default-swaps-6/
6. http://www.fitchratings.com.au/show_featart.asp?rel_id=410
7. http://interfluidity.powerblogs.com/posts/1163375565.shtml
http://www.riskchat.com/_articles/00000008.htm
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=4&threadid=41739
http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20Post.aspx?PostIDKey=85967
http://www.aleablog.com/2006/08/30/70/
Friday, November 03, 2006
人生一瞬
人生一瞬，詹宏志的新書，講的是回憶，那個我們忘卻許久的東西，總是冷不防的在偶然一個場景或旋律的觸動下跳了出來，這次是詹宏志的散文讓我停了下來不斷的回想那過去30年來我的曾經。
回憶像是電影一般的上演，我們獨立於事外，不管是美好或殘酷都已遠去，我們只是自己人生劇場的一個旁觀者。想著、看著、思緒澎派著....
在人生將落幕的那一刻，人的一生在轉瞬間也就倏地崛起然後消逝，我們不過是宇宙的一個過客; 能夠掌握的是現在，活的精采是一生，平平淡淡是一生，結果常常出乎我們意料之外；當下是重要的，是常常沒有時間去回憶，而汲汲營營的想要在人生的進程留下些什麼？
其實留下什麼並沒有那麼重要，重要的是過程，就在宇宙的這一瞬間, 我們生活著，就是現在，就是現在，現在也會成為我們闔眼的一瞬間那一幕幕快轉的情景。
回憶翻飛著，往事上演著，好久沒有靜下心來看看自己的演出；現在是如此的重要，而回憶總是蒙上一層紗般地甜美，不管多麼的忙碌，能夠在不經意的狀況下墮入回憶也算是一種幸福吧！
回憶像是電影一般的上演，我們獨立於事外，不管是美好或殘酷都已遠去，我們只是自己人生劇場的一個旁觀者。想著、看著、思緒澎派著....
在人生將落幕的那一刻，人的一生在轉瞬間也就倏地崛起然後消逝，我們不過是宇宙的一個過客; 能夠掌握的是現在，活的精采是一生，平平淡淡是一生，結果常常出乎我們意料之外；當下是重要的，是常常沒有時間去回憶，而汲汲營營的想要在人生的進程留下些什麼？
其實留下什麼並沒有那麼重要，重要的是過程，就在宇宙的這一瞬間, 我們生活著，就是現在，就是現在，現在也會成為我們闔眼的一瞬間那一幕幕快轉的情景。
回憶翻飛著，往事上演著，好久沒有靜下心來看看自己的演出；現在是如此的重要，而回憶總是蒙上一層紗般地甜美，不管多麼的忙碌，能夠在不經意的狀況下墮入回憶也算是一種幸福吧！
Friday, October 20, 2006
Another Phase of CDS
The article worth you to read is talked about "CDS Raises Insider Trading Issues"〈www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-10-17-13678.html#〉.
Timothy Johnson said "If you want to get access to information private banks have, you go and buy a piece of a bank loan."
Hedge funds are less regulated till now, if they buy credit derivatives from banks then accessing to some confidential information that not publicly announced yet. You guess what the Hedge Funds would do. In the name of profits, Hedge Funds would utilize the information in the gains on investment.
Reference：GARP Risk News
Timothy Johnson said "If you want to get access to information private banks have, you go and buy a piece of a bank loan."
Hedge funds are less regulated till now, if they buy credit derivatives from banks then accessing to some confidential information that not publicly announced yet. You guess what the Hedge Funds would do. In the name of profits, Hedge Funds would utilize the information in the gains on investment.
Reference：GARP Risk News
Thursday, October 05, 2006
Second Life
There’s a wonderful place for schizoid.
A kingdom called “Second Life”. Its GDP estimates to come to USD 60 million this year. There are 835,345 registered residents a minute ago. It’s a cyber space locates on http://secondlife.com/.
Last week the Economist had a special report talked about this metaverse. Where you could duplicate yourself or create an avatar then live with others.
We will have a five-day holiday. Maybe we could register as a resident of Second Life and have a cyber me instead to lavish our vacation. It might be a good place to find out if we have entrepreneur intent without real world risk but the time endeavor. According to Economist, the top 10 business of Second Life had profits around USD 200,000 a year. Have a try. The entrepreneurs in we may find the way to peak in another world.
reference：http://www.economist.com/business/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=7963538
A kingdom called “Second Life”. Its GDP estimates to come to USD 60 million this year. There are 835,345 registered residents a minute ago. It’s a cyber space locates on http://secondlife.com/.
Last week the Economist had a special report talked about this metaverse. Where you could duplicate yourself or create an avatar then live with others.
We will have a five-day holiday. Maybe we could register as a resident of Second Life and have a cyber me instead to lavish our vacation. It might be a good place to find out if we have entrepreneur intent without real world risk but the time endeavor. According to Economist, the top 10 business of Second Life had profits around USD 200,000 a year. Have a try. The entrepreneurs in we may find the way to peak in another world.
reference：http://www.economist.com/business/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=7963538
Monday, October 02, 2006
睡不著的那一晚
今天晚上睡不著, 不曉得是自己調的那杯伏特加的關係, 還是因為對未來的不確定, 抑或是資訊的焦慮...等, 竟令平常10分鐘就會入睡的我難以入眠.
我這個人啊, 愛看書, 大學的時候舉凡葡萄酒, 咖啡, 建築, 古典音樂, 西洋藝術, 社會心理學, 現代散文, 財經....等的書籍我都有涉獵, 因此常常自嘲自己有資訊焦慮症.
出社會後有了些許的修正, 因為自己做的是法人金融, 所以財經類的書籍漸漸的佔據了我80%以上的閱讀時間, 我的閱讀領域便窄了, 焦慮減輕了, 但是我花了更多的時間閱讀. 因為財經與管理是與時俱進甚至是呈等比的成長, 於是多年後我的焦慮又加升了.
去年考上FRM, 這使我不斷地去涉獵相關領域的知識, 但我似乎對於我本業—法人放款--的部分並沒有相對地進步, 譬如說我財務分析的技巧並沒有比我2001年的時候好太多;
我的金融常識足夠甚至超越一般法人金融的AO, 但我發覺我在法人業務上的基本技巧並沒有長足的進步,maybe it's time to back to the basic.
或許這是我今天晚上失眠的原因, 因為在酒精的作用下我才會停止吸收新知而對自我做一些反省.
我想今後我最常看的書應該換成公開說明書和年報才是, 務求對每一個數字的產生都要保持高度的敏銳.
再寫下這篇文章的同時我又喝了一杯自調的特濃自殺飛機, 但在文章的結尾, 睡意依舊無法襲人.
我這個人啊, 愛看書, 大學的時候舉凡葡萄酒, 咖啡, 建築, 古典音樂, 西洋藝術, 社會心理學, 現代散文, 財經....等的書籍我都有涉獵, 因此常常自嘲自己有資訊焦慮症.
出社會後有了些許的修正, 因為自己做的是法人金融, 所以財經類的書籍漸漸的佔據了我80%以上的閱讀時間, 我的閱讀領域便窄了, 焦慮減輕了, 但是我花了更多的時間閱讀. 因為財經與管理是與時俱進甚至是呈等比的成長, 於是多年後我的焦慮又加升了.
去年考上FRM, 這使我不斷地去涉獵相關領域的知識, 但我似乎對於我本業—法人放款--的部分並沒有相對地進步, 譬如說我財務分析的技巧並沒有比我2001年的時候好太多;
我的金融常識足夠甚至超越一般法人金融的AO, 但我發覺我在法人業務上的基本技巧並沒有長足的進步,maybe it's time to back to the basic.
或許這是我今天晚上失眠的原因, 因為在酒精的作用下我才會停止吸收新知而對自我做一些反省.
我想今後我最常看的書應該換成公開說明書和年報才是, 務求對每一個數字的產生都要保持高度的敏銳.
再寫下這篇文章的同時我又喝了一杯自調的特濃自殺飛機, 但在文章的結尾, 睡意依舊無法襲人.
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