Sunday, October 28, 2007

秘密之外

最近有一本很熱門的書the Secret ”秘密,不曉得大家看了沒有。

這本印刷精美的小書引述了很多人的見證,他們都是在敘述這從Hermes翠玉錄Emerald Tablet〉以降的不傳之秘,他們稱之Law of Attraction〈吸引力法則〉,其實就是正面思考的力量,類似社會心理學裡提到的 自証預言,所以書中所談到的我就不再贅述。但有個對於現世比較重要的觀念還是不免一提。

人們往往對於不想要的東西藉由想消彌他的想法給了同等的能量;

我們很容易與不想要的東西抗爭,但越抗爭就製造越多,因為我們給了它能量;就如同反作用力一般我們對抗而對抗的能量也反饋了回來;

所以抵抗會存在的原因是因為我們一直抵抗,如,反戰運動其實製造更多戰爭、反毒運動製造更多毒害,因為我們把能量都給了問題;

德雷莎修女說他不會去參加反戰集會遊行,有支持和平的集會再找她,所以反對某個政客,不如去支持他的對手

這或許是救台灣出泥掉的一個最大的秘密。

秘密之外的秘密,除了我們可以追溯到Emerald Tablet,還可以找到秘密之所以被禁止的原因,因為這種相信就可以得到的理論是違反神性的,所以在宗教指導思考的年代這是不被允許的,如在Umberto Eco的小說 玫瑰的名字裡,老教士為了避免知識的流傳而進行了謀殺。

此外如啟蒙運動、理性時代、無神論、自然神教、認識論、符號學、語言學、玫瑰十字會、達文西密碼….等,在秘密之外如果我們有興趣的話可以藉此去窺視歷史中關於宗教所衍生出來的諸多爭議與陰謀。

對了,秘密DVD比書好看多了,因為書中的對話都是錄自影片,因為DVD有影像的輔助,所以回頭看書的話會覺得這樣的一本書實在是很無趣;所以我是先看了DVD之後才想要去買書,但在書店翻了一翻後我就把它放回了架上,我想我有秘密DVD就夠了。所以如果已經看過秘密DVD就不要再去買書了喔。

附註:

自証預言:人們有時候會不經意的去製造某些證據來支持他們的基模架構。〈Elliot AronsonTimothy D. WilsonRobin M. Akert,社會心理學,揚智文化出版,Page 147

關鍵字搜尋:Emerald TabletHermes TrismegistusIsaac NewtonAge of Enlightment、啟蒙運動Age of ReasonEpistemology、認識論、Deism、自然神教、無神論、Pascal、巴斯卡、Leibniz、萊布尼茲、Galileo、加利略、玫瑰十字會、The name of Rose、玫瑰的名字、Umberto Eco….等。

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Time to say goodbye

在台壽保兩年五個月,終於到了說再見的時候,想說的只有謝謝,感謝我的家人、長官、同事、朋友、客戶….等,你們都是我人生道路上最好的導師,希望在未來的道路上仍然能夠有你們相伴。

穎漢在台壽保的e-mail addresscaffein@twlife.com.tw〉將於今日1800過後不再有穎漢的足跡,所以請將我的mail address改成caffein.chen@gmail.com,謝謝。

九月份一直想要以品德為主題寫一些東西,但沒有時間去拾人牙慧並消化整理,所以就推薦大家一本小書品格的力量;一本130多年前的書對照今日的小島現狀後有如真理般的閃亮,且立緒文化在2006年時推出了一本99元的中文普及版;

「一個國家是否偉大,並不取決於它疆域的大小,而是取決於他人民的品格。」 、「一個偉大的國家領袖在他身後留給國家最寶貴的財富是一個毫無瑕疵的生活楷模,是所有後人在形成自己品格時仿效的榜樣。」;

網路上亦有Character的英文html版本〈http://www.virtuescience.com/samuel-smiles.html〉,希望品格的力量能在今日的社會收激濁揚清之效。

TRUMANIn case I don't see ya', good afternoon, good evening and goodnight. Hahaha! Yeah!

Friday, August 31, 2007

Will Fed contrary to popular wisdom ?

Central banker’s job is not to prevent recession at any cost but to keep inflation down, to protect the financial system, and to prevent a recession turning into a big slump.

Many hope the Fed will repeat the trick now, just like it did after the dotcom bubble burst. Last time it slashed the rate beyond John Taylor’s recommend then encouraged a house-price boom which offset equity loss and allowed households to borrowing and spending. But to be blamed as the mild recession that breed the current financial trouble.

Some economists believe that recession is the wind of creative destruction and the necessary evil. Recession might be painful with unemployment, lower wages and profit, and bankruptcy, but will weed out inefficient companies and redistribute the capital to new industries. It will be benefit America by purging the excesses of the previous boom and leaving the economy in a healthier state.

“The policy dilemma facing the Fed may not be a choice of recession of no recession. It may be a choice between a mild recession now and nastier one later. Even if a recession were in America’s long-term economic interest, it may be political suicide.”

Will Fed cut the Fed fund rate at 18th of September is still up in the air?



Reference:http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9687245

Taylor Rule:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taylor_rule

Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Harvest for Hope

昨天的聯合報的一則”瓶裝水大戰自來水 全美發燒”,再加上最近一期的經濟學人的”Bottled water and snake oil”,這讓我回想起了在商業周刊1024期裡看到的一篇書摘,這篇書摘節錄自珍古德博士在2005年11月寫的一本書書名叫做” Harvest for Hope: A Guide to Mindful Eating”〈台灣翻作用"用心飲食”並在今年7月由大塊文化翻譯出版〉。

聯合報是這樣寫的”自從舊金山市長紐森六月以瓶裝水不經濟、不環保而嚴禁公家單位購用瓶裝水,並帶動全美許多城市效法以來,瓶裝水和自來水之戰日益沸騰….美國去年用將近二百萬噸塑膠製造瓶子….根據統計,瓶裝水瓶回收率是一成到二成,其餘全在作踐環境….美國法律管制自來水的標準比瓶裝水還嚴格,自來水如果合乎標準,就安全又便宜,不傷環境,又不用卡車、船、火車運送,幹嘛花這種冤枉錢。”

珍古德博士書中提到,生產一公斤的寶特瓶要用掉17.5公斤的水,事實上,製造寶特瓶所用掉的水比實際裝進瓶子裡的水還要多;1999年全國資源保護協會〈National Resources Defense Council〉公佈一項為期四年的研究,發現取樣的罐裝水中有五分之ㄧ含有已知的神經毒素和致癌物質,另外研究發現在取樣的103個罐裝水品牌中有三分之一含砷及大腸桿菌的現象。

經濟學人說,根據研究顯示自來水比很多瓶裝水都來的乾淨。估計有40%的瓶裝水水源是自來水,但裝瓶後的水其身價馬上千倍於自來水;在油價高漲的今日,一公升的瓶裝水其售價還是遠高於汽油,另外,我們沒有想到的是這一瓶瓶的水在製造、裝瓶、運送、回收、棄置等的過程中所需耗費的是多麼龐大的資源。

當然消費者自有其選擇,人們會買瓶裝水自然是認為它比自來水來的安全與乾淨,透過大企業的控管來取代這生活必需品在公共的配送網絡裡面遭受汙染的疑慮,這是人們對政府和公共事業的不信任感。還有,瓶裝水對大部分的人而言是便利的。

或許如珍古德博士所言,在日常生活的時候我們可以買一個好的濾水器裝在家裡,買一個瓶子自己從家裡裝水隨身攜帶;這樣或許少了一點便利,但對地球的永續發展卻是正面的。

愛地球就從自己做起。


聯合報報導:
http://www.udn.com/2007/8/6/NEWS/WORLD/WOR4/3958264.shtml
http://www.udn.com/2007/8/5/NEWS/WORLD/WOR4/3957595.shtml

經濟學人相關文章:
http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/businessview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9569968

珍古德博士的”用心飲食”:
http://e-info.org.tw/node/24561
http://www.harvestforhope.com/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joshua_Ortega

Wednesday, July 18, 2007

Grandiose Café

午餐之後的咖啡,信步走到重慶北路和衡陽路交叉口的Starbucks,點了杯最廉價的本日咖啡上了二樓;

Marvelous!!! 四米以上的挑高、古典樣式的窗櫺、半解構式的天花板,古典和現代在這裡完美的交融,一個帶有歐洲氣息的大咖啡館在這裡重現了,這裡真是Starbucks氣氛販售的極致所在。

咖啡店的吵雜在這樣的一個極致空間裡迅速隱入成了背景音樂之一,喧鬧在這裡只顯其可愛而不覺得煩躁,這是一處有空間魔法的所在。

想像在只有一個人的咖啡館,一個人盤據一角享受這諾大的空間,這會是種幸福滿溢的感覺吧;人聲鼎沸的時候,這裡也會是城市中最適合隱居的角落。

遇見一間大咖啡館,想像著以後該如何與它纏綿。

Friday, July 06, 2007

商業周刊 1024期

今天搭火車上班的途中大約瀏覽了一下這一期的商業周刊。醒目的標題寫著「梭羅:中國摧毀全球中產階級。」,我想這是很多人都已經知道的事,只是再看到這樣的標題時心中依然有忍不住的悸動,我想這是中國目前身為全球製造中心所產生的必然,但印度和菲律賓大量的English speaking人口所產生的全球白領outsourcing亦是中產階級在全球殞落的主因之一。

梭羅在文章中指出「教育仍然是經濟成功最重要的要素,沒有教育,沒有人才,就不可能掌握新經濟。」。但對於台灣目前的教改我則是抱著更多的憂心。
在簡的新書”老師的12樣見面禮”其中一篇「留或不留」提到了根與翅膀;回到台灣受教育是為了保有孩子中文的根,留在美國受教育則可以給孩子學習的翅膀,提早讓他體會學習的廣度與深度並增加其國際視野。但最後作者一家選擇回了台灣。

台灣目前高中國文課的教改,文言文佔45%、白話文佔55%,甚至有團體主張將白話文的比重提高至70%;當孩子們不足以在這樣的學習環境中去理解中華文化的深度與學習使用精鍊的中文時,我覺得這樣的學習確有斷根之嫌。參考一下International Baccalaureate吧,或許還能來得及給孩子一對翅膀。

另外,在這一期的商業周刊中還教大家如何佈局台股基金以便年底前再賺30%,我們覺得可以參考一下然後開始來賺我的30%。

還有,公孫策的去梯言,將馬英九和謝長廷最近的口舌之爭用影子和罔兩的寓言來比擬,50步和百步,猜猜看是罔兩比較強還是影子比較厲害。

對了,裡面還有一則no bullshit的徵人廣告,看看是誰在徵人並帶大家遠離牛群吧?週末了輕鬆一下吧。


Reference:
International Baccalaureate:http://www.ibo.org/
老師的12樣見面禮:http://caffein1975.blogspot.com/2007/06/international-baccalaureate.html當期商業周刊:http://www.businessweekly.com.tw/

Wednesday, June 27, 2007

升值〈生質〉能源

自2006年來每一個BTU的生質能源其價格上漲的幅度大於每一單位的石油。

這是因為石油的上漲使得替代能源更容易被人們所接受,再加上在環保意識逐漸高張的今日,生質能源的使用可以減少地球的暖化,這使得生質能源的需求不斷的上升因此推升了他的價格。

生質能源是穀物所作成的,其中主要是小麥和玉米,於是小麥和玉米的種植面積增加了,於是這相對排擠了其他作物的種植面積,如黃豆、玉米、柳橙….等;所以當牛、羊、雞所需的飼料需求不變但供給減少,這造成了去年美國柳橙汁的價格上漲了1/3、雞蛋價格上漲了1/5、牛奶價格上漲了5%,而食物價格上漲的速度在今年更是驚人。

全球穀物的生產在2006年達1569萬噸,預計今年可達1660萬噸,但今年的需求預估達1680萬噸,需求大於供給;根據EIU的預測在2009年這樣的狀況都會持續著。

於是有趣的連結就產生,如上個禮拜的奈及利亞罷工事件推升了石油的價格,同樣的它亦推升了雞蛋的價格。

我們活在一個充滿蝴蝶效應的世界。


Reference:http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9378875

Tuesday, June 26, 2007

老師的十二樣見面禮 & International Baccalaureate

最近剛結束了一個自以為很簡單的考試〈事實上還是要花一點時間和下一點功夫的〉,之後,開始讀了一本我大學時代所欣賞的作者所出的新書”老師的12樣見面禮”。

天下父母心,如果有能力我也願效法孟母三遷;
這一本簡的新書描述的是他們一家在美國科羅拉多州的Fort Collins生活半年的所見所聞,其中我覺得最令人欣羨的是其子在Dunn IB World School所接受到的教育。

IB World Schools,是經過International Baccalaureate所認證的學校,上網查了一下IB的資料後深深的認同其教育理念,可惜台灣只有美國學校和歐洲學校取得他16-19歲diploma programme的教學認證,如果台灣有IB的小學和幼稚園〈IB的其中一項學程--Primary Years Programme--是針對3-12歲的學生〉,我會很樂意送我的小孩去那裡接受教育的。 還有我覺得如果台灣的教改如果能有90%像IB, 我會對台灣的教育與未來更加的寬心,但現在的我只好儲備自己的能量以便有一朝能帶全家逃離這個小島。

關於老師的十二樣見面禮這一本書,我尚未看完,但我把Dunn IB World School的特殊歸因於他是一所IB World School,所以想要了解3-12歲的小朋友在IB World School所可能接受到的教育與改變可以參閱簡的這一本新書,其中的幾篇可以感受到IB的獨特性,如:一所小學、老師的十二樣見面禮、頒獎、期中成績單、小學裡的選修課、請假授課備忘單、研討會練習、織一張閱讀網….等;藉由簡的眼和其生花妙筆,我見識到了教育的美好與未來。

接下來是從IBO網站所剪貼下來的關於International Baccalaureate的相關資料。
1. What is International Baccalaureate〈IB〉?
The International Baccalaureate was founded in Geneva, Switzerland in 1968 as a non-profit educational foundation. Its original purpose was to facilitate the international mobility of students preparing for university by providing schools with a curriculum and diploma recognized by universities around the world. Since then its mission has expanded, and it now seeks to make an IB education available to students of all ages.


2. Why the IB World Schools and their students are so unique?
The IB offers a continuum of high-quality education that encourages international-mindedness and a positive attitude to learning.

To encourage international-mindedness in IB students, we believe that students must first develop an understanding of their own cultural and national identity. All IB students learn a second language and the skills to live and work with others internationally—essential for life in the 21st century.

We encourage a positive attitude to learning by encouraging students to ask challenging questions, to critically reflect, to develop research skills, and to learn how to learn. We encourage community service because we believe that there is more to learning than academic studies alone.


3. How the IB World Schools be assessed, organized, and managed?
IB World Schools cooperate in curriculum development, student assessment and the governance of the IB, making this a unique international collaboration.

The IB does not own or manage any schools. Instead, we work with schools around the world (both state and privately funded) that share our commitment to international education.

Schools that have been authorized by us to offer one or more of our programs are known as "IB World Schools".

These schools:
Shared the mission and commitment of the IB to quality international education.
Played an active and supporting role in the worldwide community of IB schools.
Shared their knowledge and experience in the development of the IB programs.
They are committed to the professional development of teachers.

Authorization to become an IB World School is an intensive process that typically takes two or more years and includes site visits by an IB team.
Schools that have been authorized undertake a regular process of evaluation.
At our heart we are motivated by a mission to create a better world through education.


4. The mission statement of IB.
The International Baccalaureate aims to develop inquiring, knowledgeable and caring young people who help to create a better and more peaceful world through intercultural understanding and respect.
To this end the organization works with schools, governments and international organizations to develop challenging programmes of international education and rigorous assessment.
These programmes encourage students across the world to become active, compassionate and lifelong learners who understand that other people, with their differences, can also be right.


5. What Jeff Beard, IB director general, said?
You may ask why demand for IB programmes continues to be so strong? In my opinion, it’s because the IB is better positioned to respond to today’s educational challenges. As people increasingly realize what it takes to compete in today’s interconnected world, the IB is increasingly viewed as offering one of the best educational systems to prepare young people for the future. IB programmes are international, develop critical thinking skills, require a second language, and emphasize cultural understanding in our principle that other people can be right as well. IB students undergo a unique experience which better positions them to tackle today’s global issues in a more creative way than has been done in the past. Our programmes are shaped around creating “a better and more peaceful world” with a core determination to develop students who can create this better world through intercultural understanding and respect.
In essence, IB programmes are “fit for purpose” for the 21st century!”


6. For more information.At glance the facts of IB at http://www.ibo.org/facts/fastfacts/index.cfm

Something you don’t know about the tide

There’s another alternative fuel that we never see it seriously- the tidal wave.

I get to know about it from the GARP News of yesterday. It said the seawater is 832 times as dense as air, providing a six mile-per-hour ocean current with more kinetic energy than a 217 mile per hour wind.
Unlike hydropower, tidal energy doesn’t require the permanent impediment of water flow and the subsequent harm to aquatic life.
But tidal power plants can impede sea life migration and can affect local ecosystems. To work it environmentally, carefully select sites for the plants that preserve the shorelines.

Hope to see the workable future and the reasonable price for the electricity from tidal wave.


reference:www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-06-25-14934.html

Thursday, June 07, 2007

Talking about Peace Index

What you can’s measure, you can’t understand. So The EIU complied the first “Global Peace Index”

In accordance with the Taiwan’s Business Weekly, Most of the happiness nations came to the top of index. Those northern Europe countries were not surprised me but the America. America listed 96th, ironically, just above Iran. Maybe the index was comprised of relations with neighbors, arms dales, foreign troop deployments, crime rates, prison population, etc., and America came with huge military expense annually. So the index might have your comprehension to understand it.

If the peace is like a mantra always in your mind, the article is worth your reading.

I just try to keep the introduction simple and concise, and wish you would like what I recommended.

You may hyperlink the column to http://www.economist.com/world/international/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9266967.

Thursday, May 10, 2007

Agflation

美林5月1日時在其內部的投資研究平台﹙Bullseye﹚寫到因為食物價格的上漲給消費者物價指數帶來壓力,所以他們成這種現象為Agflation。

根據美國農業部門的報導,食物價格在去年上漲了2.3%,預估今年會上漲3.5%,但僅今年第一季的漲幅年化後就達7.3%。

在中國和印度,消費者物價指數中食物的比重分別達33%與45%。 所以當我們在談核心物價上漲時,因為剔除了食物和能源的變動,故在食物和能源價格高漲的今日,這樣的指標是不恰當的。

食物價格上漲的原因主要有三個:
﹙1﹚ 能源價格上漲;因為大量的玉米被做成酒精以作為石油的替代能源,而當大量的農地轉而種植玉米後,其他的農作因為產量減少而導致其價格上漲;且玉米主要作為飼料使用,當飼料因短缺而價格上漲後,牛肉和雞肉等家畜類產品的價格亦會隨之上調。
﹙2﹚ 氣候變異;如澳洲的霜害造成小麥的減產,又全世界氣溫異常的升高後蔗糖、水果、柳橙….等的產量減少所帶來的價格上漲。
﹙3﹚ 發展中國家的工業化,如中國的發展導致近十年來每年大約有一個蘇格蘭般大的可耕地被重新開發。

食物的價格從1980年起就不斷的在上漲,但自2005年3月來,米、大麥、小麥、玉米、豬肉、牛肉…等的價格至少上漲了30%,但這也推升了食品類股的股價,如S&P 500的包裝食品指數去年一年就上漲了17%,且從今年3月中至今它就漲了8%。

所以Agflation對消費者是不好的,但對某些食品公司而言它可能是個好消息。


On May 1, Richard Bernstein, the Chief Investment Strategist of Merrill Lynch had coined an eye-catching term “agflation”. It is the behaviour of food prices - an inflation that none of us can avoid.

For example, in the US, food prices in the first three months of this year alone rose at an annualised rate of 7.3 per cent. Versus the rising was 2.3% in 2006.

When we talked about core inflation, the food always been excluded. But now in China and India, food accounts for 33 percents and 45 percents of their consumer price indices respectively. Food-price inflation has also been a big driver of the "frequent purchases" measure of inflation. The exclusion of food may be short-sighted.

Given the changing demand for food, especially the energy industries are turning to be the mass consumers of food products. Because the soaring price of crude oils, the corn-based ethanol became the suitable substitute for petrol. The demand is rising then the price is skyrocketing.

Another cause is changing weather patterns expanding constraints on food supply. Most researchers believe that higher temperatures and droughts caused by climate change will depress crop yields in many places in the coming decades. For example, the frosts in major wheat growing region of Australia battered harvests then driving up the prices. The previous 100 years of data recorded none.

Then there is third world industrialisation: every year for the last decade, China has lost fertile land equivalent to the area of Scotland.

Food input prices are now putting more upward pressure on producer inflation than at any time since the early 1980s. The prices of rice, wheat, corn, barley, cattle and pork are all up by more than 30% since March 2005. So the recent performance of the S&P 500 packaged foods index has risen 17% during the past 12 months and is close to a record high.

"Agflation is bad news for the consumer, already under pressure from higher energy prices," said Jose Rasco, an investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, , in a recent note. "For the food companies, however, it could be good news as many companies have been able to pass along those higher costs to the end user."

Reference:
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/marketview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9136006
2. http://askmerrill.ml.com/res_article/1,2271,19659,00.html
3. http://business.scotsman.com/agriculture.cfm?id=689162007&format=print
4. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=10df0a8b-94f5-4897-9048-aa6971f97947&k=25161
5. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18468351

Wednesday, April 25, 2007

20070423 GARP News Digest

★根據FEI〈Financial Executives International〉在2006年對274家上市公司所作 的調查顯示,為了遵循沙賓法案404條款每一家公司在2005年的平均花費為380萬美元。因為遵循沙賓法案404條款的成本太高所以很多小公司選擇私有化或下市後在Pink Sheets上提供報價。

華頓商學院的教授Christian Leuz表示在1998年到2004年家有484家公司下市後轉到Pink Sheets,其中有372家公司是在2002到2004年下市。Leuz教授表示遵循404條款的成本從50萬美元到上百萬美元,對小公司而言成本遠高於效益。

於是SEC的Advisory Committee在2006年4月提出建議針對微型〈股票市值1.28億美元以下〉和小型的公司〈股票市值在1.28億美元和7.87億美元之間〉在遵循沙賓法案404條款上作分級,雖然微型和小型公司的市值分別只佔美國股市勢值的1%,但美國的上市公司有52.6%是微型公司、有25.9%是小型公司。

Reference:
http://www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-04-23-14583.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pink_Sheets



★根據今年三月的數據所跑出來的LEI 〈Leading Economic Indicators〉和KRWI〈Kasriel Recession Warning Indicator〉顯示出了景氣衰退的訊號。

Reference:http://www.garp.com/resources/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-04-23-14584.html

Monday, April 23, 2007

The pursuit of wealthiest

Two month ago, our CEO gives all his employees two movie tickets for us to see “ The Pursuit of Happyness”.

Why this film would be recommended by my boss? Maybe it’s the movie that casts business in a good light, talks about the merits of capitalism, tells a story of a man struggling against homelessness and the importance of fatherhood, suggests happiness not only a brief illusion but something long-lasting, and etc.

The scene and the lines echoed after I saw the preview, it said” If you have a dream. Go and get it.”

I have a dream; I wish it could be realized some day. While I had never suffer the hardship like Chris Gardner, but I just want to say that he did chose the right path to become rich. To be a trader is not an easy way to go, but worth try.

In the year 2005, James Simons grabbed the biggest profits as the top trader. But the globe is getting more turbulent nowadays. Last year Brian Hunter tumbled with Amaranth in the wrong direction of natural gas prices, but John Arnold outnumbered the rest of traders in the opposite direction of Arnold. The estimated income of Arnold comes to 1.5 to 2 billion; he earned roughly 300 times the bonus of Goldman CEO.

To the pursuits, it’s a never ending game to become the wealthiest, besides you could become the happiest if you got the faith in yourself. The faith lies in the knowledge pursuing would bear the fruits of wealth growing.


Reference:
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/businessview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8991240
2. http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2006/12/18/why-top-traders-outearn-investment-bank-ceos-2-1/
3. http://www.traderdaily.com/news/item/5585.html
4. http://www.forbes.com/business/2006/12/22/hedge-fund-bonuses-biz-cx_lm_1222hedge.html
5. http://www.forbes.com/lists/2006/54/biz_06rich400_James-H-Simons_5GZ7.html



當錢錢來敲門

一個多月前我們老闆給了公司的員工每個人兩張的電影票,因為他要我們每個人都去看”當幸福來敲門”。

當然每個人在電影過後都有了不同的啟示。男主角很聰明沒錯,雖然魔術方塊那一段是應威爾史密斯的要求才加進去的,但Chris Gardner選擇不當醫生而想從事證券交易員致富證實是正確的。

因為真正的打工皇帝就是這群交易員們,在2005年前百大交易員平均的年薪是3.63億美元;2006年高盛證券CEO的年薪為5340萬美元,但這樣的薪水只是跨入百大交易員的門檻而已。去年最會賺錢的交易員是John Arnold,他去年的收入預估在15至20億美元,但2005年的冠軍James Simons在去年的收入也是不惶多讓。

當然想要成為其中的一員除了要有很強的抗壓性外、不然就是有異於常人市場敏銳度、還有就是數學不能太差--不然怎麼唬人。John Arnold今年33歲,看來有生之年我是趕不上他了;James Simons今年68歲,可是他是個數學博士,看樣子要花很大的工夫才有辦法在跟他年紀一樣大的時候還能日進斗金。

Monday, April 16, 2007

寫作力

從小到大,我並不是特別喜歡作文,我的作文分數當然也不會是佳作優等之流,因為一切的一切都只是為了交差了事;但
升上了大學之後,我的眼界開了,除了課業之外我加入了好幾個社團、去咖啡店打工、品酒、煮咖啡、藝術史、建築、美食….等,我的生活一下子擁擠了起來,於是慢慢的我把我的生活體驗 —如美麗的晚霞、雲彩背後的神之光芒、日本料理店的幸福味道….等— 透過e-mail的繕寫將我的心情在其時其地完整的保存下來。

當兵的兩年更是我課外閱讀的黃金時期,除了背英漢字典外我看了上百本的書、寫了上百封信、記錄了數百頁的的心情,我的文字常常充滿了閱讀的感動,當然我也靠著我的書信再退伍後的一個月內和我的老婆從好朋友變成了男女朋友。

進入社會後,我忙著約會、急切地充實自己金融的專業、不斷地考取自以為有用的證照;於是看雜書的時間少了,書寫因覺得耗時所以就被擺在了一邊,鎮日拿著最新的期刊與報紙不斷擷取產業知識與金融新知,但少了文字的梳理,很多的東西都要反覆的閱讀之後才得以深入肌理。

1012期的商業周刊標題是”越寫越聰明”,雖然我不算笨,但是難得聰明,希望重拾往日書寫的感動,讓我那積了太多東西的腦子能夠產生梅迪奇效應。

Friday, March 30, 2007

讀本與資產的未來

資訊焦慮的人總是覺得不斷的被資訊追著跑,好不容易看完了上一期的周刊、今天的報紙、檔案夾的報告,等,但一下子就又被迎面而來的資訊所淹沒。

上個禮拜的經濟學人有幾篇還不錯的文章,其中一篇是關於未來的讀本,我們這種終日與閱讀為重的人,生活型態亦可能隨著讀本的樣貌而有所改變。

The future of books
http://www.economist.com/books/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8881446


另外一篇是關於美國的次級房貸,有在做投資的人可以看看一看,以免一不小心我們的資本利得就被地球另一邊的這隻大蝴蝶所影響縮水了。在這個無所不連且更加纏繞在一起的世界,蝴蝶效應也亦發明顯。

America’s housing market
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8885853

Friday, March 23, 2007

Financial Shenanigan

Last week, the Buttonwood column talked about confidence, the confidence that we laid on the credibility of financial system.

But to our omittance, the ironic Ponzificating slid in and spread across the whole globe. Ponzi Scheme is a financial shenanigan, paying the higher return to the foremost from the money funnel by the hindmost, it depends on confidence or relies on mew backers to keep them going.

The hedge funds, private equities, pension funds, etc., all of them are chasing higher returns, so the sub-mortgage backed securities arose to sustain their dreams via rising house prices. But one day the real estate did not buoyant any more, so the securities sustained by the sub-mortgage deteriorated then the institution investors ran amok. That’s the Ponzi-like game.

More examples of Ponzi-like structures, 〈1〉pay-as-you-go pension systems depend on there being enough workers to fund promises made to retired employees, 〈2〉The health of the commercial banking system depends on the assumption that most depositors will keep their money in the bank, when there’s a bank run the result is usually an economic catastrophe.

Hyman Minsky, an American economist, distinguished three kinds of borrowers, Hedged debtors, Speculative borrowers, and Ponzi borrowers. Hedged borrowers and Speculative borrowers at least could pay their interest. But when the assets not appreciate any more, the Ponzi borrowers would go bankrupt, not to mention interest.

So beware the Minsky moment may come.

Reference︰http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8864415
http://wallstreetexaminer.com/blogs/winter/?p=504

Ponzi Scheme:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ponzi_scheme

Minsky moment:
http://www.bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=134435

Friday, March 16, 2007

手機經濟學

在經濟學人2月15號的期刊中有提到手機付費的趨勢,其中有顧問公司預估手機付費機制將從2003年的32億美元成長到2008年的370億美元。
2月12日的時候有19家電話業者宣佈用手機做境外匯款的時代將來到,即使沒有銀行帳戶也做得到,而關於移民者和境外工作者對母國的匯款是個一年2500億美元的市場。
手機付費的機制之所以吸引人是因為很多人甚至是小孩都有手機,所以較容易推廣並普及。
手機付費應用的技術為NFC〈Near Field Communication〉,目前NFC主要的應用如台北捷運悠遊卡、香港八達通卡、英國Oyster、日本Edy….等,但上述四種系統除了日本的Edy有手機付款的機制外其餘都僅止於是名片式卡片;NFC的手機付款機制和NFC卡片付款機制的差別在於手機付款機制有螢幕可以顯示資訊並作雙向的溝通、可以線上儲值、可以透過手機做匯款、遺失的時候可以遠端報失並鎖住預存的額度….等。
Edy 目前是日本最大的非接觸式付款平台,共有4.3萬家商店可接受用Edy付款,目前有2300萬個使用者,其中包含450萬個使用者是用手機付款機制;現在每個月約有1500萬筆交易是透過Edy完成。日本第二大是Suica非接觸式付款平台,目前有1800萬個帳戶。
可是各非接觸式付款平台其實並不相容,但日本在3月18日的時候會推出PASMO平台,它整合26家鐵路和75家巴士公司。
日本的Edy、Suica、PASMO的三種非接觸式付款平台同時都可有名片式卡片和手機付款方案。
美國人和日本人不同的是,美國人較習慣用塑膠貨幣付款,目前有超過15億張信用卡在美國人的口袋裡。而預付卡的市場從VISA、MasterCard、Discover等發行的預付卡到星巴克、GAP等發行的禮物卡約有1800億美元的市場。但相較於整個消費市場非接觸式付款平台的市佔率仍小,目前在美國有600萬個商店可接受信用卡消費,但僅有100萬個商店可用非接觸式卡片付款。
銀行當然也想參與這個新的付款平台以便收取更多的手續費,但新科技的突破卻直接繞過了銀行這個中介的機構,如透過非接觸付款機制買票、買報紙、買咖啡等的帳單並不會顯示在我們的信用卡月結單,而是顯示在我們的手機帳單裡。
可是一旦少了銀行的介入,電信公司並不樂見消費者用手機付款平台去做大額的消費,因為電信公司沒有銀行的金融風險控管機制,所以它並沒有能力去承擔信用風險,甚至是去處理呆帳與追討欠款。所以如此觀來銀行還有它在個產業的施力點。
新技術的進展,造成了產業邊界的模糊,跨業、結盟、整併等,Smartcard產業也將因手機和NFC的結合而上演新的戲碼。


Original:
http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8697424

M-PESA:
http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_money/2006/02/mobile_payments.html
http://www.vodafone.com/article/0,3029,CATEGORY_ID%253D30403%2526LANGUAGE_ID%253D0%2526CONTENT_ID%253D278612,00.html

Chip and PIN payment:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chip_and_PIN

NFC:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Near_Field_Communication

Report “Mobile Payments and Keitai Credit”:
http://eurotechnology.com/store/mobilepayment/

bitWallet:
http://china5.nikkeibp.co.jp/china/news/news/200506/mobi200506080104.html
http://www.japancorp.net/company_show.asp?compid=3474
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edy

Suica:
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suica
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suica

PASMO:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PASMO
http://www.japan-guide.com/e/e2359_002.html

Felica:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Felica
http://203.66.161.5/document/mic_digi/Topology/report_topology/network/2004/040602FeliCa.pdf

Smart card:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smartcard

Thursday, March 08, 2007

龍應台的自首報告:路走得寬闊,人顯得從容

常常接到同事和朋友轉寄來的信件, 但, 每一個人微小的善意在資訊流通的社會就慢慢的形成了一種負擔;
我有三個e-mail address, 每一個信箱都有上百封未讀的信, 而且大部分都是類似這一封一般的 forward mail, 所以,
我也常常擔心我對朋友的微小善意也會造成別人的負擔;
但找個有空的時間看一看這些文章卻常常會有意外的收穫, 因為這些文章之所以會被流傳其實是有它的價值;
它可能扭轉了我們的看法, 感動了某人, 提醒你一個不曾注意到的現象....等.

我不常轉寄信件, 但對於一個我所敬重的作家當他也在不經意的狀況下和一個對台灣未來有決定性的人物可能身陷同樣的處境時, 他的自首報告至少透漏了人格的細微處與政治的陷阱;
哀台灣, 愛台灣, 哀...........

看看唄!

http://news.yam.com/chinatimes/politics/200702/20070205909046.html or
http://news.chinatimes.com/2007Cti/2007Cti-News/2007Cti-News-Content/0,4521,110502%20112007020500023,00.html or
http://www.wretch.cc/blog/januaryfirst&article_id=8294510

Tuesday, January 30, 2007

The Frenzy of M&A Spree

M&A came to $3.79 trillion in 2006, 38% higher than in 2005, according to the data from Thomson Financial. Europe registered 39% more deals than in 2005 with amounts of $1.43 trillion. U.S. grew 36% higher than in 2005 and came in at $1.56 trillion. Private equity firms snapped 20% of global M&A activities last year, marked a golden era for them. But there are some intriguing things left for us to find out.

Private equity firms with $660 billion in corporate buyouts last year and a war chest of $750 billion will to deploy, investors are on a roll, but concerns about the sector’s ability to deliver sizeable return are also welling up. There is too much money chasing for too few good deals.

Talking about exit strategies, secondary-IPO, a sale to the strategic buys in the same industry, or selling to other private equity firms.

Some economists believe that secondary IPOs are undertaken when the owners believe that the potential overvaluation by the markets far exceeds the cost of public quotation, otherwise they would consider another route.

Even IPO or a sale to strategic buyers in the same industry, are now taking much longer than they once did. In 1999, it took less than two years for investors to cash out of an investment through an IPO, but in 2006 it took more than five years, according to Raphael Amit, Wharton professor of entrepreneurship and management.

When selling to other private equity firms, we must concern about the risk that private equity firms themselves are engaged in a sort of ponzi scheme in which buyout firms sell companies to one another at increasingly high prices that ultimately will crash. It caused me worried.

Then we backed to the craze of M&A. Before HCA was buyout by $33 billion of KKR in July 2006, the RJR Nabisco case was topped at the list at the cost of $31.4 billion since 1988. However, in January 2007, Blackstone launched a bid for a set of real estate assets〈Equity Office Properties Trust〉, valued at $38.3 billion. We are looking forward to seeing another break record in the very near future.

“ Everything is very peachy now. Last year was the best on record by size, and 2007 in all likelihood will be even better in terms of activity. Whether it will be a good year for investors is an open question.", Wharton finance professor Pavel Savor echoed.

References:
1. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1647&CFID=3908579&CFTOKEN=62228347
2. http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1639
3. http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2007-01-25-14146.html
4. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706089.shtml
5. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706088.shtml
6. http://udn.com/NEWS/FINANCE/FIN5/3706086.shtml