Sunday, December 31, 2006

手製的幸福

太過速成的人生、節奏明快的生活、太過無情的世界,轉瞬即逝、不再有情;我們似乎都忘記了慢、回憶、朋友、與問候。

“人生ㄧ瞬”的威力發酵著,ㄧ本詹宏志的書、一個想念的季節、一篇褚士瑩的文章,呼應著從前的自己來到眼前和現在對照著;
原來壓力是如此的兩面軔,讓你拋去從前的慢慢與優閒,ㄧ股腦的跳進了與時俱進的洪流;但retrospection似乎也成了一種壓力,讓你不斷地對自己過去的十年反動著;壓力無所不再,逼自己慢下來、逼自己和朋友聯絡、逼自己要重拾書寫的樂趣…..壓力。

但壓力也就在ㄧ字一句間從身體進入了文章時....緩解。

太多了思念總在此時,或許最需要ㄧ張親手書寫的卡片、ㄧ聲問候、ㄧ則短訊才可以稍解每年襲來的思念狂潮。

新年快樂,我的朋友。

Wednesday, December 27, 2006

敗犬?

日本真是個奇特的國家,把年過30而未婚的女人稱之為敗犬,初聽到這個名詞的時候覺得它充滿了貶抑的意味,但”敗犬的遠吠”的作者--酒井順子—似乎已經對這樣的稱謂麻木並做出反擊。

2004的日本暢銷書,對現代的日本不婚族做了描述其實也正是台灣正在經歷的,敗犬是過去的人對不婚女性的貶抑,和單身寄生蟲一詞一樣是對生育率下降且對遠離傳統的這一群人而做出的一種激將的手法,但在現代人樂於做自己、只要我喜歡有什麼不可以的氛圍下,敗犬、單身寄身蟲、御宅族…等的名詞漸漸變成只是一股微弱的雜音,耳機戴上則隨時可以?棄眾人的紛擾而進入屬於自己的領域。

敗犬的遠吠,這應該是一本有趣的書,被稱之為敗犬的不再年輕未婚女子,或許可以藉此書找到自己的出身,藉由書中的描述去辨識出同類、去嘲笑社會過時的價值觀….等。

找到一個相關的網站連結?http://hercafe.yam.com/blog/be_single?,另外,商業週刊995期也有相關的書摘。

參考看看吧!

Thursday, December 21, 2006

Beware the overpriced debt

Private Equity uses LBO to leave most of the debt to banks. It needs to be wary of the banking industries. When there’s not any boom sustained corporate sales, then the earning of corporate dwindled, finally the binge would come to an end.
Hope banks with most of the LBO debts without structured could survive.

But thanks to the spree of credit derivatives recently. The risk of the defaults would bear by investors evenly not only banks. The question is who’s the investor. So look into the portfolio of your mutual fund just in case you are the scapegoats.

In the harbor, one rookie of investment banking asked his chief where are the yachts of the clients. It’s a joke but cruel to show the reality there’s no boat left for us. The LBO binge stumps up fees to the private equities for their orgy. And left the bourgeois like us sank.

See what the Buttonwood said this week. 〈http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8459490〉

Thursday, November 16, 2006

CPDO

It was Buttonwood's article mentioned a new credit derivative last week; it called CPDO, Constant Proportion Debt Obligations. I just wondering what on earth the synthetic credit instrument it is. Then decide to find out the answer.

Apparently it's a hot stuff. You could see those references below. It was all talked about CPDO after August 2006.
Its first debut was at August 2006 launched by Abn Amro named SURF. SURF is a fixed-income bond with triple-A rating from major bond rating organizations. Investors could earn more coupons than other AAA bonds.

It's worth a look.
You may try the references 1 and 2 to read the outline of this new instrument.
If you really have interest in it then you could see references 3 and 4 to feel the joy of Abn Amro as the inventor of CPDO and the covering letter of SURF.
After that you could go to reference 5 to know what the havoc it caused to credit derivative market recently.
To savor it in an easier way I recommend you the references 6 and 7, you could find how plainly they explain CPDO to you.
At last, there are several URLs remained and left for you to saturate yourself with CPDO raves.


References:
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/techview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=8150178
2. http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/economonitor/157230
3. http://www.abnamro.com.au/content/media/articles/308.asp
4. http://www.nuclearphynance.com/User%20Files/393/BLP10636.pdf
5. http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2006/11/01/555/daily-report-credit-default-swaps-6/
6. http://www.fitchratings.com.au/show_featart.asp?rel_id=410
7. http://interfluidity.powerblogs.com/posts/1163375565.shtml

http://www.riskchat.com/_articles/00000008.htm
http://www.wilmott.com/messageview.cfm?catid=4&threadid=41739
http://www.nuclearphynance.com/Show%20Post.aspx?PostIDKey=85967
http://www.aleablog.com/2006/08/30/70/

Friday, November 03, 2006

人生一瞬

人生一瞬,詹宏志的新書,講的是回憶,那個我們忘卻許久的東西,總是冷不防的在偶然一個場景或旋律的觸動下跳了出來,這次是詹宏志的散文讓我停了下來不斷的回想那過去30年來我的曾經。

回憶像是電影一般的上演,我們獨立於事外,不管是美好或殘酷都已遠去,我們只是自己人生劇場的一個旁觀者。想著、看著、思緒澎派著....

在人生將落幕的那一刻,人的一生在轉瞬間也就倏地崛起然後消逝,我們不過是宇宙的一個過客; 能夠掌握的是現在,活的精采是一生,平平淡淡是一生,結果常常出乎我們意料之外;當下是重要的,是常常沒有時間去回憶,而汲汲營營的想要在人生的進程留下些什麼?

其實留下什麼並沒有那麼重要,重要的是過程,就在宇宙的這一瞬間, 我們生活著,就是現在,就是現在,現在也會成為我們闔眼的一瞬間那一幕幕快轉的情景。

回憶翻飛著,往事上演著,好久沒有靜下心來看看自己的演出;現在是如此的重要,而回憶總是蒙上一層紗般地甜美,不管多麼的忙碌,能夠在不經意的狀況下墮入回憶也算是一種幸福吧!

Friday, October 20, 2006

Another Phase of CDS

The article worth you to read is talked about "CDS Raises Insider Trading Issues"〈www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-10-17-13678.html#〉.

Timothy Johnson said "If you want to get access to information private banks have, you go and buy a piece of a bank loan."

Hedge funds are less regulated till now, if they buy credit derivatives from banks then accessing to some confidential information that not publicly announced yet. You guess what the Hedge Funds would do. In the name of profits, Hedge Funds would utilize the information in the gains on investment.

Reference:GARP Risk News

Thursday, October 05, 2006

Second Life

There’s a wonderful place for schizoid.

A kingdom called “Second Life”. Its GDP estimates to come to USD 60 million this year. There are 835,345 registered residents a minute ago. It’s a cyber space locates on http://secondlife.com/.

Last week the Economist had a special report talked about this metaverse. Where you could duplicate yourself or create an avatar then live with others.

We will have a five-day holiday. Maybe we could register as a resident of Second Life and have a cyber me instead to lavish our vacation. It might be a good place to find out if we have entrepreneur intent without real world risk but the time endeavor. According to Economist, the top 10 business of Second Life had profits around USD 200,000 a year. Have a try. The entrepreneurs in we may find the way to peak in another world.

reference:http://www.economist.com/business/PrinterFriendly.cfm?story_id=7963538

Monday, October 02, 2006

睡不著的那一晚

今天晚上睡不著, 不曉得是自己調的那杯伏特加的關係, 還是因為對未來的不確定, 抑或是資訊的焦慮...等, 竟令平常10分鐘就會入睡的我難以入眠.

我這個人啊, 愛看書, 大學的時候舉凡葡萄酒, 咖啡, 建築, 古典音樂, 西洋藝術, 社會心理學, 現代散文, 財經....等的書籍我都有涉獵, 因此常常自嘲自己有資訊焦慮症.

出社會後有了些許的修正, 因為自己做的是法人金融, 所以財經類的書籍漸漸的佔據了我80%以上的閱讀時間, 我的閱讀領域便窄了, 焦慮減輕了, 但是我花了更多的時間閱讀. 因為財經與管理是與時俱進甚至是呈等比的成長, 於是多年後我的焦慮又加升了.

去年考上FRM, 這使我不斷地去涉獵相關領域的知識, 但我似乎對於我本業—法人放款--的部分並沒有相對地進步, 譬如說我財務分析的技巧並沒有比我2001年的時候好太多;
我的金融常識足夠甚至超越一般法人金融的AO, 但我發覺我在法人業務上的基本技巧並沒有長足的進步,maybe it's time to back to the basic.

或許這是我今天晚上失眠的原因, 因為在酒精的作用下我才會停止吸收新知而對自我做一些反省.

我想今後我最常看的書應該換成公開說明書和年報才是, 務求對每一個數字的產生都要保持高度的敏銳.

再寫下這篇文章的同時我又喝了一杯自調的特濃自殺飛機, 但在文章的結尾, 睡意依舊無法襲人.

Wednesday, September 13, 2006

Biofuels Effects

The newly report regarding Biofuel was released by Soyatech LLC has a say.
It estimated the biofuel production would grow over 16 billion gallons per year by 2015.

Especially the ethanol it goes from 4.5 billion gallons in 2006 to 14.2 billion gallons by 2015. The forecast didn’t go with the proceeding of E85. If the E10 will replace by the more environment friendly E85, then the ethanol consumption would outweigh 14.2 billion gallons by 2015.

When it goes then the butterfly effect would come to the escalation of corn price. Cause most of the ethanol is made from corn nowadays. Finally the price of meats and dairy products would drive up.

But the picture would be changed if ethanol could economically produce via cellulose. So be ware of the technology progression regarding cellulose based ethanol. The fortune lies in.


Reference:
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-09-12-13483.html
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-07-14-13172.html

Tuesday, August 29, 2006

日高羊奶粉一文更正事宜

看樣子我真的是找錯公司了,
GOLDEN HEALTH(N.Z) LIMITED的確已經註銷了;但日高羊奶粉的紐西蘭製造商NEW ZEALAND GOLDEN HEALTH LIMITED卻是真實的存在, 而且還有網站(http://www.nzgoldenhealth.co.nz).
但不變的是這依然是一家小公司, 我覺得小朋友要喝的東西還是買大廠牌較安心.

以下是重新搜尋後的資料:
Company Number: 1561733
Company: NEW ZEALAND GOLDEN HEALTH LIMITED
Incorporated: 11-OCT-2004
Current Status: REGISTERED
Entity Type: Company
Directors Name: LIN, Hui-Ying
Level 5, 350 Queen Street, Auckland
Date Appointed: 11-OCT-2004
Total Number of shares: 100
Number of Shares: 100
Shareholder(s): SU, Hsin-I
Level 5, 350 Queen Street, Auckland

Thursday, August 24, 2006

書香家庭

我們家有兩個愛看書的小孩.

我想這是因為我也很愛看書的關係吧, 但愛看書應該是不會遺傳的吧! 那應該是我們的行為影響了小孩.

我們家那個3歲的亞亞和那個快1歲半的萃萃最喜歡去我們家的ball room玩, 那裡就是他們的遊戲間, 亞亞每次要去玩時候都要我陪他去, 而萃萃也就尾隨著亞亞一起跟了過來.

他們在玩的時候我就會坐在旁邊的地板或椅子上看書, 而3歲和1歲半的小朋友是很難一起玩的, 所以常常過不了多久他們就會看我在幹什麼? 之後他們就會各拿一本書來找我, 萃萃就會學我看書的樣子, 坐在我旁邊翻起了書來; 亞亞呢, 就會把書塞到我的手上要我唸給他聽, 因為在亞亞還是萃萃般的年紀時我們就常常拿著巧虎月刊逐頁的講故事給他聽.

講故事的時間到了, 這時萃萃也把她手上的書放了下來急忙的湊了過來聽我講故事, 但因為同一本故事書總是重覆的講述著, 所以亞亞通常會跟著我一起講述著故事的情結, 但在第一段結束後又因為對故事太熟悉就離開了我去玩玩具了
; 萃萃呢, 她對於色彩豐富的故事書本更感興建, 總是在故事進行的同時就急著想翻到下一頁去.

不同年紀的小孩有不同的認知與發展.

亞亞除了有我和媽媽會講故事給他聽之外, 從他會講話開始, 奶奶在亞亞每天晚上睡覺時都會為他講床邊故事, 到後來床邊故事成了亞亞每晚睡覺時必進行的儀式, 久而久之亞亞竟對每本故事書的情結都瞭若指掌, 只要奶奶一開頭他就會和奶奶一起把故事講完.

萃萃呢, 我常常幫她收書, 因為她常常把我的書從書架上抽出來, 一本又一本的, 然後她會拿一本書就在地上翻來翻去.

除了玩具和電視之外, 書也在我們家小朋友的生活中佔有一定的份量, 小朋友有樣學樣, 書香自然就在我們家瀰漫了開來.

Wednesday, August 23, 2006

Kenya Kihenia Estate AA Top Grade


Kenya Kihenia Estate AA Top Grade

今年6月在歐舍買的豆子, 500塊錢一磅, 我買了半磅;
另外我還買了半磅的Kenya Gethumbwini Estate AA Grade的豆子, 同樣也是500塊錢一磅, 一磅的歐舍冰咖啡300元, 半磅的歐舍福袋250元, 那次總共買了2.5磅的豆子, 1050元, 就是硬要湊到超過1000元的消費金額才可以免運費.

放了兩個月的豆子, 當然已經不夠新鮮了, 所以悶蒸的時間不足, 但仍可以明顯的感覺到其明亮中帶酸的香氣, 甜甜的帶著股花香.

如茶湯般呈暗紅色的的咖啡液, 配上一組漂亮的杯子, 整個人的心情也跟著愉悅了起來; 來一杯酸味優雅的咖啡, 如飲茶品酒一般, 莓果酸, 甜香, 回甘, 停留在口中的餘韻…….嗯, 這就是我人生最享受的時刻了.

兩個半月了, 兩磅半的咖啡豆也快喝光了, 這樣一款優質的咖啡豆當我再上歐舍的網站上找尋時果然已經被搜括一空了. 可惜嗎? 還好網站上還有很多咖啡等著我去嘗試. 但一次訂2磅3磅的還沒喝玩就已經過了賞味期限了, 或許下次可以找多一點人來share.

Reference: 歐舍咖啡(http://www.orsir.com.tw/)

Monday, August 21, 2006

The weird situation that puts banks at crossroads

The weird situation lies in the discrepancy between deposit rates and loan rates. Deposit rates are rising, while loan rates aren't rising at all. This is not news to everyone, but most of the people not in the banking industry wondering.

One reason that we’ve mentioned last time〈see the “Effects of Credit Derivatives” at my blog:http://caffein1975.blogspot.com/〉.

The others would be talked now. For those banking conglomerates eager for growing must pay more for interest-bearing deposits in order to maintain liquidity then the credit rates usually cut in exchange for deposits, especially for business loans.

The liquidity does matter. And securitizations would be a viable funding conduit for banks. The trend is, as commercial loans are chased to fill the conduit, the deals are growing smaller and smaller.

For the growth sake, the margin of commercial loans squeezed.

If not concerning about the growth then the profits do the talk- to remain where they are or shrink a bit-.

Reference:http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-08-17-13360.html#

日高羊奶粉 v.s. 桂格羊奶粉

最近老婆買了一瓶羊奶粉給女兒混合著牛奶粉一起喝, 因為聽說喝羊奶粉的小朋友體質會比喝牛奶來得好, 因為羊奶分子較細易為人體所吸收, 本草綱目記載羊奶具有顧氣管的功效, 且羊奶中的抗過敏成分較牛奶多, 並含有可強力分解過敏原的酵素; 事實上女兒喝得還不錯, 所以再決定要不要繼續買時我上網對這家廠商做了些搜尋, 結果發現了一些尚需要澄清的事實.

這瓶由"啄木鳥國際股份有限公司"進口名為"日高"的羊奶粉, 製造商是New Zealand Golden Health Limited.所以我就上紐西蘭的公司註冊網站(http://www.companies.govt.nz/pls/web/dbssiten.main)搜尋這家公司, 但我只有發現一家名為Golden Health(N.Z) Limited的公司和這啄木鳥的製造商相近, 可是這家製造商卻在2005年1月28日取消了註冊.

這家公司百分百的股份是屬於住在中國的Fan Xeu-Dong, 公司成立於1999年8月31日, 2005年1月28日取消在紐西蘭的註冊.

我上網的目的很簡單, 因為我覺得他的成分還不錯, 但因為他不是知名的廠牌所以我要先上網查一下他的口碑, 但因為”日高”是新的廠牌所以還查不到口碑, 於是我就去找它國外的製造商…..噹噹

結果如上述, 但問題來了??可能是
1. 我找錯公司了?
2. 進口商被晃點了?
3. 進口商分裝的是2005年1月28日前生產的羊奶粉.
正確的答案尚待需澄清.

我的結論是, 買奶粉還是找大廠牌的較保險, 用新產牌前不管它的成份多好先上網或跟週遭朋友探一下口碑.

以下為這罐成份很優的”日高”羊奶粉和我新買的”桂格”敏兒成長羊奶粉的比較.
每100公克粉末 日高羊奶粉 桂格羊奶粉
蛋白質 (克) 17.5 16
乳鐵蛋白 (毫克) 60 15
果寡糖 (毫克) 1300 500
亞麻油酸 (毫克) 2800 3400
次亞麻油酸 (毫克) 280 310
DHA (毫克) 20 30
維生素A (微克) 520 450
β-胡蘿蔔素 (微克) 150 124
維生素D3 (微克) 11 7
維生素E (毫克) 20.5 8.7
維生素K (微克) 60 15
維生素B1 (毫克) 0.6 0.7
維生素B2 (毫克) 1.1 0.8
菸鹼酸 (毫克) 6.9 9
維生素B6 (毫克) 0.5 1
維生素B12 (微克) 3 0.7
維生素C (毫克) 93 80
生物素 (微克) 25 20
葉酸 (微克) 96 50
膽鹼 (毫克) 110 32
牛磺酸 (毫克) 41 30
肌醇 (毫克) 56 20
鈣 (毫克) 950 800
磷 (毫克) 590 550
鈉 (毫克) 163 180
鉀 (毫克) 905 970
鎂 (毫克) 68 80
氯 (毫克) 620 610
碘 (微克) 80 20
鋅 (毫克) 6.6 4
鐵 (毫克) 8.2 8
錳 (微克) 65 60
銅 (微克) 420 450
上皮細胞生長因子 (微克) 90 82

對了, 關於進口商的部份, 一個是1000萬的"啄木鳥國際股份有限公司", 一個是32億的"佳格食品股份有限公司"; 至少你可以知道誰比較有力去處理風險.

我並沒有打壓中小企業的意思, 只是關心一下這ㄋㄟㄋㄟ,因為它是主導我女兒生理成長的營養來源.

Monday, August 14, 2006

Anti-Chen Shui-bian Campaign


The `Nelson Mandela of Taiwan', Shih Ming-teh, launched anti-Chen Shui-bian campaign last Saturday.

In May 2006, a series of scandals regarding first family were discovered. A-Bian ‘s son-in-law and son-in-law's family were alleged to be involved in illegal share-transfers. His wife was accused of accepting huge amounts of gift certificates from a department store(SOGO) in exchange for government assistance in restructuring the store's business leadership. His aides were also alleged to be involved in major corrupt acts.

Shih's campaign last Saturday called on a million people in Taiwan to each make a donation of NT$100(US$3)to a bank account to fund the anti-Chen Shui-bian campaign. The money will be used to pay for food and drinks and cleaning at the proposed sit-in site.

If you are interested to know the proceedings of the anti-Chen Shui-bian campaign your could hyperlink to http://www.newtaiwan.org.tw.

If you can’t read Chinese, Taipei Times(http://www.taipeitimes.com/)would be a convenient place for you to approach Taiwan’s affairs in English.


Reference:
http://www.wikipedia.org/
http://www.newtaiwan.org.tw/
http://www.taipeitimes.com/

Tuesday, August 08, 2006

The Possibility That Might Jeopardize The Future of Project Finance

The most intriguing recently is the one that mentioned about the proposed Joint FASB/IASB Lease Accounting Project.

The “major project ” reviews the current leasing-accounting standards. If the methodology that treating the current operating leases changed, then it might be a calamity to future structured and project financing transactions.

Leasing agreements account for at least 1/8 fix assets transactions worldwide. It was rampant in America and 1/3 of the equipments were leased.

If you interested the related article, you could click the hyperlink below.
http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-08-04-13296.html

Thursday, August 03, 2006

Effects of Credit Derivatives

Wondering why the borrowing rate contrast to the rising trend of interest rate.

The 7/28 risk news of GARP would give you an answer.

In case the risk of copyright breaking, I attached part of the article in the next paragraph. If you are interested to see the whole context, you may hyperlink to the URL attached to the end of this page.

Alan Greenspan has always favored derivatives since they provide capital to help companies avert a credit crunch and reduce risks by making financial markets resilient to shocks. At a time when oil prices are above $70 a barrel and more than two dozen central banks have raised interest rates since May, derivatives are allowing companies to borrow a record $607 billion and obtain relatively cheap financing.

By bundling more than 10 percent of that lending into so-called collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), bankers are able to provide more cash to companies.

Eastman Kodak was able to borrow even after Moody's lowered its ratings three times since the beginning of 2005 in part because its debt and credit-default swaps are contained in more than 150 CDOs.





http://www.garp.com/risknews/newsfeed.asp?Category=6&MyFile=2006-07-28-13253.html