Agflation

美林5月1日時在其內部的投資研究平台﹙Bullseye﹚寫到因為食物價格的上漲給消費者物價指數帶來壓力，所以他們成這種現象為Agflation。

根據美國農業部門的報導，食物價格在去年上漲了2.3%，預估今年會上漲3.5%，但僅今年第一季的漲幅年化後就達7.3%。

在中國和印度，消費者物價指數中食物的比重分別達33%與45%。 所以當我們在談核心物價上漲時，因為剔除了食物和能源的變動，故在食物和能源價格高漲的今日，這樣的指標是不恰當的。

食物價格上漲的原因主要有三個：
﹙1﹚ 能源價格上漲；因為大量的玉米被做成酒精以作為石油的替代能源，而當大量的農地轉而種植玉米後，其他的農作因為產量減少而導致其價格上漲；且玉米主要作為飼料使用，當飼料因短缺而價格上漲後，牛肉和雞肉等家畜類產品的價格亦會隨之上調。
﹙2﹚ 氣候變異；如澳洲的霜害造成小麥的減產，又全世界氣溫異常的升高後蔗糖、水果、柳橙….等的產量減少所帶來的價格上漲。
﹙3﹚ 發展中國家的工業化，如中國的發展導致近十年來每年大約有一個蘇格蘭般大的可耕地被重新開發。

食物的價格從1980年起就不斷的在上漲，但自2005年3月來，米、大麥、小麥、玉米、豬肉、牛肉…等的價格至少上漲了30%，但這也推升了食品類股的股價，如S&P 500的包裝食品指數去年一年就上漲了17%，且從今年3月中至今它就漲了8%。

所以Agflation對消費者是不好的，但對某些食品公司而言它可能是個好消息。


On May 1, Richard Bernstein, the Chief Investment Strategist of Merrill Lynch had coined an eye-catching term “agflation”. It is the behaviour of food prices - an inflation that none of us can avoid.

For example, in the US, food prices in the first three months of this year alone rose at an annualised rate of 7.3 per cent. Versus the rising was 2.3% in 2006.

When we talked about core inflation, the food always been excluded. But now in China and India, food accounts for 33 percents and 45 percents of their consumer price indices respectively. Food-price inflation has also been a big driver of the "frequent purchases" measure of inflation. The exclusion of food may be short-sighted.

Given the changing demand for food, especially the energy industries are turning to be the mass consumers of food products. Because the soaring price of crude oils, the corn-based ethanol became the suitable substitute for petrol. The demand is rising then the price is skyrocketing.

Another cause is changing weather patterns expanding constraints on food supply. Most researchers believe that higher temperatures and droughts caused by climate change will depress crop yields in many places in the coming decades. For example, the frosts in major wheat growing region of Australia battered harvests then driving up the prices. The previous 100 years of data recorded none.

Then there is third world industrialisation: every year for the last decade, China has lost fertile land equivalent to the area of Scotland.

Food input prices are now putting more upward pressure on producer inflation than at any time since the early 1980s. The prices of rice, wheat, corn, barley, cattle and pork are all up by more than 30% since March 2005. So the recent performance of the S&P 500 packaged foods index has risen 17% during the past 12 months and is close to a record high.

"Agflation is bad news for the consumer, already under pressure from higher energy prices," said Jose Rasco, an investment strategist at Merrill Lynch, , in a recent note. "For the food companies, however, it could be good news as many companies have been able to pass along those higher costs to the end user."

Reference：
1. http://www.economist.com/daily/columns/marketview/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9136006
2. http://askmerrill.ml.com/res_article/1,2271,19659,00.html
3. http://business.scotsman.com/agriculture.cfm?id=689162007&format=print
4. http://www.canada.com/nationalpost/financialpost/story.html?id=10df0a8b-94f5-4897-9048-aa6971f97947&k=25161
5. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18468351